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Politics : Idea Of The Day -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: IQBAL LATIF who wrote (21544)	11/20/1998 4:58:00 AM
From: IQBAL LATIF	Respond to of 50167

Thursday, Nov 19 1998 7:20PM ET Hi Mr. "NDX" <g> What's this "deep throat" stuff? <g> People might think that I'm Alan or Bob's 'junior intern'! No 'Bhumbo' for me. <ggg> A few technuts & internuts have painted potentially bearish voodo candleslicks on the dailies after a phenomenal run into overbought voodo weege board cult readings. <g> ie. AOL, AMZM, YHOO, SEEK, CSCO, INTC, DELL, GTW, etc. The Dow and the oils, TRAN, XAL & BKX look dicey as well. mmmh, will it be enough to trigger some further profit taking since after a sharp rise to new high is reached, most expect a pull back? We shall see. Interesting to note that the DOW pretty much ignored the strong European rally and IBM didn't join today's INTC technuts rally. Can we say? IBM back to 155 at the close tomorrow? 160 put closed at 1 7/8; low 1. I hope it rallies above 160 tomorrow morning. mmmh There are a lot of dummy dippy buyers out there so if the MM are going to make a 'retracement' move / profit taking... they may have saved their 'powder' for tomorrow but if they're content to let the markets run higher then GREAT 'calls'!!! I still don't believe the Big Boys are that generous. If the market has a pullback then my cheap insurance will payoff nicely, otherwise, I'll make it back on the long position and take lock in more profits. As you said, markets don't go straight up or down. Regards, "Harry Scrotum" PS, I don't mind if you post my "pen name" <g> Friday, Nov 20 1998 2:18AM ET Hello Mr. NDX, Steve wrote on your thread: "...i think we go to all time high tomorrow and the equity option MM get burnt this month. heck they made up all other months." Yes we could go to all time highs tomorrow but I doubt the option writers MM "gets burnt this month". Ike, we both know that these savvy MM are NOT in the business to get "burnt" and if they structure their option book properly then it is hedged. (none of these rogue naked options writing; could get very expensive with the exposure) Basic call writers usually sell covered calls and charges a premium for it. It's in the time and volatility premium where the option writers make most of their money. Now if tomorrow we close at all time highs, the option writer doesn't care because he has had the equity behind appreciating in value as well. The option writer has made $$$ on the time & volatility premium, thankyouverymuch. As I said before, savvy MM won't get burnt unless they sold naked. Now there may be an opportunity for my little play on puts when the MM option writer sells the equity behind the option to close it or as options get closed tomorrow. The markets have had a stupendous run in the last month to the point of some considering it "overbought" at this time. Many internuts and technuts recently made new all time highs and people may just be ready to take some profits in fear of the inevitable pullback. I'm aware of several newsletter rags that issued a SELL recommendation TODAY to their large following to take some profits. Now add that the MM may wish to get off at the top (thanks to the recent "last-to-know" market sheep) to settle up with the calls written, we may see MM selling off tomorrow which may cue others who have held long to do the same and even trigger some stop losses and we get our healthy pullback on the markets. As I said in my previous message, many voodo weege board readers are also getting short term reversal signals / visions on certain key equities & indexes. Dow Theorist are there too with the tran leading indicator. So what do we end up with? a high possibility that MM will start to take profits at the top, confirm some of the bearish candleslick and voodo readings and let investors take the market further down. This will help reduce the value of all remaining open calls so the MM makes more money from the remaining open calls. The open interest on puts has reduced substantially so they are not too worried about them. My little put trade is solely based on the MM GREED to sell off at the top and make the least possible payment to call buyers. mmmh, just received an e-mail alert from another newletter rag recommending "SHORT AOL/XCIT/SEEK". It's sometimes very useful to subscribe to several popular market rags to be aware of what's being touted. Regards, Harry Scrotum