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Technology Stocks : RATIONAL SOFTWARE- BUY OR HOLD -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Cesare J Marini who wrote (2735)	11/20/1998 3:55:00 PM
From: ratlong	Read Replies (2) \| Respond to of 3115

Holy cow, I thought SI had started displaying in a foreign language... First of all, I am no financial anaylst, so bear with me if these thought makes no sense. I was looking at analyst estimates recently and EPS estimates for the remainder of the year. The Nasdaq analyst profile seem to be missing something. Assume RATL has earned $.23(.09 and .14) so far this year. Consensus this quarter is $.16 and $.20 to finish the year. Previous consensus estimates had them at $.54 for the year. However, with current performance and consensus estimates, they come in at $.59, which is where Levy guided them. If they were to hit the current "stated" consensus estimate of $.54, that means a total of $.31 for the last two quarters. Totally achievable. They did .12 the last 2 quarters of last year. A 30% increase and they hit it on the nose. For them to hit the $.59 and stay inline with quarterly estimates, that represents a %30 increase for Q3FY99 and approx. 65% increase in Q4FY99. That seems aggressive. However, Levy basically promised it in his CC. Either he has to deliver or the insider sales are a bad sign of something to come. I don't know either way. I think these guys are rolling, so I would think that they will nail it. Anyone want to 1)comment or 2) correct my errors in the way I'm looking at these numbers. Appreciate the advice.