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Politics : Ask Michael Burke -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: novice investor who wrote (37073)	11/20/1998 5:56:00 PM
From: Knighty Tin	Read Replies (2) \| Respond to of 132070

Novice, there are lots of calendar effects, but they are usually industry by industry and sometimes, co. by co. For example: 1. Xmas is when the retailers try to lie people into the store. "Hurry up before they are all gone at this ridiculous price." Around December 26, "If you thought our price was ridiculously low before, well, we have just reduced it by 25%. Please come in so we can pay the electric bill from those danged Xmas lights. Please work your way around all the folks in line trying to get refunds." <G> That scam spills over to everything sold at retail, from video game cartridges to computer boxes to clothing mfrs. to their suppliers and financiers, etc. They all play the game of blind man's bluff. The theory being that if you say you are doing well, the herd wants to be with winners. So, if you say Tickle Me Elmo is in short supply, you can make it the truth. Except that it doesn't work for most products. 2. The January Effect now also takes place in December. It moves back every year as folks try to anticipate it. 3. New car sales in Sept/Oct. Much less pronounced than in previous decades, now that they have 1999 1/2 models. Soon they will be quoting them in 32nds and 64ths. <G> 4. The chip slowdown of Jan-early March. Even in shortage years, this period is the slowdown time and all the recoveries start to sour. 5 Golden Week in Asia, which is really about 3 weeks long. This is a March/April holiday. Many Asian cos. shut down plants. This has been especially noticeable in chips, as the Microns can then sell their crap without the competitors raising production. The analysts fall for it every year, claim US and European chipsters are gaining share, all of which disappears when Golden Week is over. <G> 6. The Summer doldrums in technology. The hot April and March become no-sale Mays and Junes and Julys, with a pickup in August for back to school. 7. Early April for financial service scamsters. With IRAs and Keoughs needing to be funded before filing tax returns, this period usually sees high mutual fund, insurance and brokerage commission sales. Ex any hard news, you can usually buy the brokerage group for a trade in Jan and sell it April 16. Buy puts on the 17th. Those are the ones I pay the most attention to. Remember, they are only minor factors in lieu of any important news. Fundamentals and valuation are still more important than the time of year. MB