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To: Jim McMannis who wrote (23219)11/20/1998 5:04:00 PM
From: Ming  Read Replies (1) | Respond to of 116791
 
Dow, Dollar and Gold.

DOW is up more than 20% in less than 2 months.
A correction of at least 5% is in order in the next month.
Dollar, meanwhile, is being pressured by slowing US economy and lower rates-which are falling everywhere though.
As these scenarios play themselves out over next few months, then gold should make a significant rebound.



To: Jim McMannis who wrote (23219)11/20/1998 5:10:00 PM
From: Ming  Respond to of 116791
 
Brazil devaluation IMO has not gone away. Although they have cooperation from Congress, they are doomed in the medium term:

1) cuts not deep enuf: even if all cuts carried out, deficit only slashed by half.
2) fiscal targets overdependent on increase in tax revenues, based on illusory growth targets. (Brazil is falling deeper into recession, thanks to sky-high interest rates).
3) As US economy slows, powerful feedback effect will affect severely latin region economies.

Although the country has won a couple of months of reprieve due to the IMF package, most major fundamentals have not changed.