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Strategies & Market Trends : Waiting for the big Kahuna -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: yard_man who wrote (34076)	11/20/1998 6:09:00 PM
From: Haim R. Branisteanu	Read Replies (2) \| Respond to of 94695

I think GLM is relatively safe. Most oil companies start to have a positive pasture. TNT would also be quite attractive. BWDIK Haim

To: yard_man who wrote (34076)	11/21/1998 10:37:00 AM
From: Rambi	Read Replies (2) \| Respond to of 94695

I purchased GLM calls two days ago so was delighted to see Haim's buy signal! I've held this company for three years, though my current longterm holdings in it are now at a much higher average. Hopefully I can make shortterm profits on the side while I wait for it to come back. It's a good company and does both shallow and deep water drilling, though they have several inactive rigs right now which caused their profits to drop. I also own HAL calls. I believe the oils due for an up cycle and GLM should come back strong when the sector does.

To: yard_man who wrote (34076)	11/21/1998 10:51:00 AM
From: Skeet Shipman	Read Replies (2) \| Respond to of 94695

Hi tippet, You might want to read what the real experts expect. From Baker Hughes Inc. Nov. 11 Oil and Gas Prices Three Months Ended Nine Months Ended September 30, September 30, 1998 1997 1998 1997 -------------------------------------------------------------------------- WTI ($/bbl) 14.08 19.73 14.91 20.89 U.S. Spot Natural Gas ($/mcf) 1.93 2.39 2.06 2.30 Crude oil prices were weaker compared to the same periods in 1997 due to a slowing of worldwide demand growth, the Asian economic downturn, and increases in OPEC and non-OPEC production in prior quarters that has resulted in higher inventories (particularly in North America). U.S. natural gas prices weakened during the three months ended September 30, 1998. Prices greater than $1.80 are expected to support natural gas drilling activity at near current levels. Rotary Rig Count Three Months Ended Nine Months Ended September 30, September 30, 1998 1997 1998 1997 -------------------------------------------------------------------------- U.S. - Land 676 865 747 805 U.S. - Offshore 119 126 129 121 Canada 206 399 280 349 -------------------------------------------------------------------------- North America 1,001 1,390 1,156 1,275 -------------------------------------------------------------------------- Latin America 229 270 254 276 North Sea 48 55 54 59 Other Europe 45 52 47 54 Africa 65 78 77 81 Middle East 170 170 167 157 Asia Pacific 169 184 179 182 -------------------------------------------------------------------------- International 726 809 778 809 -------------------------------------------------------------------------- Worldwide 1,727 2,199 1,934 2,084 -------------------------------------------------------------------------- U.S. Workover 1,000 1,411 1,140 1,420 Outlook The Company expects oil prices to trade between $12.00 and $15.50 per barrel for the remainder of 1998 as production cuts balance the impact of weakened demand and inventories stabilize. The Company believes that a MANAGEMENT'S DISCUSSION AND ANALYSIS OF FINANCIAL CONDITION AND RESULTS OF OPERATIONS CONTINUED sustained low price environment for crude oil may result in a period of slower than expected customer spending through the end of 1998 and into 1999. In 1999, the willingness and ability of certain countries, particularly Saudi Arabia, Venezuela and Mexico, to continue to restrict production and exports, as well as increasing depletion rates, could result in inventories that approach normal levels and ultimately lead to rising oil prices. Growth in customer upstream spending is dependent upon expectations for growth in worldwide hydrocarbon demand. In the long-term, the economic rebound of developing Asia is expected to result in demand growth approximating the long-term trend of 2 to 2-1/2% per year. North America: The Company anticipates that North American activity will continue to decline through the remainder of the year relative to the prior year. Offshore activity is expected to weaken temporarily as high day-rate rigs are recontracted at lower rates. <<< NOTE !!! International: The Company expects that activity in Latin America will decrease over the remainder of the year as budget cuts in Mexico and Venezuela impact activity levels. Eastern Hemisphere activity is expected to weaken further unless oil prices rise above current levels.