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Technology Stocks : Asyst Technologies (ASYT) Good Value/Where is the Bottom? -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: EACarl who wrote (1230)	11/23/1998 9:29:00 AM
From: Q.	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 2313

EACarl, I think the stock is neither highly over- or under-valued at 20. It was highly undervalued during the market rout two months ago, when it sold near cash. I built my exposure to a fairly extreme level when the stock was below 10. Now that the stock is more reasonably valued, I am simply reversing my exposure to previous levels. When I say that I've reduced my exposure to this stock, and others in the sector, it doesn't mean that somebody who buys at the present price won't be rewarded over enough time with an above-market rate of return. I think there's opportunity for a 2-3 fold gain over those years, as the sector's cycle corrects and 300 mm appears. This stock is extremely volatile, varying from ridiculously over-valued to ridiculously over-valued, and there's lots of time before capital investment by semiconductor makers recovers to anywhere near previous levels, so it seems to me that there's a good chance we'll see 10 again before we see 40. So it seems to me that it isn't reasonable to have a high exposure to this stock right now. A moderate exposure, but not a high exposure. To get an idea of how volatile the stock is, look at this chart comparing it to AMAT and the SOX (I started the chart in Mar. '96, when Cary started this thread under the preimse that ASYT was possibly a good buy, being down two-fold from earlier in the year). tscn.com