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Politics : Ask Michael Burke -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: yard_man who wrote (37129)	11/20/1998 9:41:00 PM
From: accountclosed	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 132070

tip, doesn't everything that works like 19/20 times create a situation where it doesn't work? Like the guy that asked earlier in the evening about how come the January effect was now in December. If a pattern has an effect, people try to jump ahead of it. So the 20% increase can be what we just had. I don't know if I was clear. If we could observe that every Friday the market would go up, wouldn't we buy on close on Thursday. But then someone would move to 3pm thursday and so on. Any thing that reliably works brings about its own downfall and breaks.

To: yard_man who wrote (37129)	11/20/1998 9:57:00 PM
From: Knighty Tin	Read Replies (2) \| Respond to of 132070

Tip, I think it is total crapola. Go back in time and see how well Fed easing worked during the Depression. It only works when the economy is basically sound. We are basically unbalanced and about to fall over. Different game that these indicators cannot figure out. MB

To: yard_man who wrote (37129)	11/21/1998 12:44:00 PM
From: Mike M2	Read Replies (2) \| Respond to of 132070

Tippet, many indicators that were reliable in the past have not been reliable -this happens in a bubble especially when the bubble has the blessing on the government and a mkt where some observers suspect the mkt gets helped via the futures by the fed or a designated fed operative when it start to get weak. In the past the normal business cycle was that cpi,ppi inflation would rise and the Fed would choke off the overheated expansion and lower when the economy was weak so the steps and stumble rule was more reliable. The legendary technician ( sorry MB)-g- Edson Gould invented the rule. BTW I have an e-wave book where Gould supposedly made some remarkable forecasts using Elliot Waves but I was a kid then . The current situation resembles the US in the 20's where many economists marvel at the strong economy with no inflation-totally ignoring the inflation of financial assets. The scary part of the comparison is the current excesses are worse than the 20's and the economy is not as sound in many respects. Mike