To: HG who wrote (15368 ) 11/20/1998 9:56:00 PM From: Original Mad Dog Read Replies (2) | Respond to of 27307
Happy Girl, From the times on your posts here and on the YHOO board, you must not have slept much. And you were thinking about YHOO in your sleep. Well, guess what, so was I. My bearishness is starting to return in the short-term, despite your and SweetPete's valiant efforts (repeat after me, go long, l-o-n-g, go long, you are feeling very sleepy) to convince me that YHOO, at virtually any price, is a buying proposition. The thing is, mass hypnosis as an investment pattern has led a lot of people to ruin over the centuries. And yet, the hypergrowth of a revolutionary market, if that's what this is, has led a lot of people to spectacular wealth over the centuries, too. A couple of days ago, citing YHOO's uncertain but considerable promise and its clear short-term overvaluation, I advised you and others to average out of your YHOO long positions until the price retreated to the low 100's (no split). My advice applied to current YHOO holders but, as SweetPete's eventual response to our exchange (which I believe you posted here as well) indicated, there is advice to be given to those like myself who are standing on the sidelines, open-mouthed and somewhat slack-jawed, wondering whether we should discard everything we've ever learned about investing/speculating and just get with the program. For us observers, what do you think of the following strategy: 1. Average IN to YHOO over the next 6 months. For example, say I have $100,000 (not real numbers, just round ones -- I don't want to sound like that condescending jerk earlier today who couldn't help but brag about how much $$ he had) in cash, freed up from recent sales of stocks that hit their target prices. Why not buy 100 shares before Thanksgiving, another 100 in December, another 100 in January, and so forth, until the money runs out? That way, if YHOO tanks to a more reasonable valuation soon, many of the purchases will average down the basis to a level from which YHOO can be expected to appreciate in the intermediate- to long-term. If YHOO goes up som more, which I still consider unlikely in the near term, then I win because at least I'm long for a change. Commission costs are negligible on the web, anyway. Downside is that YHOO tanks after I buy and stays in the tank either a long time or forever (also a possibility, although they sure don't look like a failure to me -- if they tank then they'll probably recover some, or someone can afford to buy them for the franchise value, which will still be worth something). Still mulling it over, MAD DOG