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Technology Stocks : Creative Computers(MALL) -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Tom Hua who wrote (383)	11/20/1998 10:01:00 PM
From: FawnVu	Respond to of 1634

Thanks for the offering and look forward to it...I daytraded MALL on Wednesday and Thursday, but decided today to hold some for next week since the IPO is approaching...It seems that the market and the NET sector will have a good gappo on Monday's morning at least...I am sure you are a good shorter but have to be careful with the NET (especially MALL because of the IPO, hype, speculation and madness of NET valuation)...You never predict them in these days, especially with the market condition and NET sector that seem favorable at least in the holiday season...FV

To: Tom Hua who wrote (383)	11/20/1998 10:05:00 PM
From: Sojourner Smith	Respond to of 1634

I have watched the GCTY, DRIV, EBAY, SEEK, NSCP,etc ipos very carefully. I called Merrill Lynch today and the broker I talked to was very excited. From my experience watching this type of situation I feel you are underestimating the run UBID will make. I don't want to give a figure because I can't figure in the exuberance factor. IMO there is no way UBID will fall below $20 the second day. The question I have still is what will MALL do. The people who get the UBID shares as Merrill Lynch customers will do great, that I am sure of.

To: Tom Hua who wrote (383)	11/20/1998 10:42:00 PM
From: Gordon A. Langston	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 1634

Tom MALL being 80% efficient as surrogate for uBid I think you can make the csase that the IPO has already taken place. The 20% IPO will only enrich the already rich. Although I'm not 100% in agreement with your valuation you make the corrct comparisons. My only thought is that MALL will be 100% internet based some time soon (possible) and that could give it an increased value. Regards Gordon

To: Tom Hua who wrote (383)	11/20/1998 11:55:00 PM
From: SkyDart	Read Replies (2) \| Respond to of 1634

Tom: Agree with your strategies playing the short side on stocks like Ktel and Gern. Currently I own a large put position in geron that I acquired when it was about 12. Due to the "irrational exuberance" of the net sector, I personally feel it is too risky to short outright the internets; I prefer the put option route as the potential losses are limited. I like to balance my potential downside with the potential profit side and enter into situations where the benefit /risk ratio is heavily in my favor. Geron is preferable IMO to the internets because there was one piece of news that drove the stock for a day...and geron has done this before and will settle back with high probability. Internet IPO's are not as quick to fall, and positive news is not a one time event, but a daily barrage. I agree that Mall will eventually retreat; thus it is a potential long term short/put play; however there is no denying that the current market conditions are potentially EXTREMELY VOLATILE to the upside in internet IPO's, so I do not have the funds or the stamina to short them. At this time and through the 11/30 IPO of UBID, I would bet you a quarter [ 25 cents] that we see a significant runnup in Mall into the 40 to 50 range. The IPO's are heavily marketed and hyped and I do not believe Merril and Co. will disappoint in this aspect. Imagine the runnup when CNBC begins the UBID hype ala The Globe style next week. [The runnup will have little to do with ultimate valuation; Short term stock swings usually are much more related to emotion than underlying value; ie MO, KMG, DO, UPR etc, etc] Afterwards I agree you may make a profit on your short position as the stock settles down once emotions settle.

To: Tom Hua who wrote (383)	11/23/1998 8:17:00 PM
From: Clarksterh	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 1634

Tom - I used WS valuation for comparable computer auction net stocks as a benchmark for UBID, specifically the leaders in the field ONSL. It turns out EGGS (no more brick-and-mortar, all net now as you know) is getting almost the same valuation as ONSL too. I agree that uBid is not deserving of the same valuation as eBay because it has much lower gross margins. But neither is it deserving of the same valuations as ONSL or EGGS. Although these two companies have margins much closer to uBid's, they have none of the growth of uBid. uBid is more than doubling revenues every quarter, albeit on a gradually slowing curve, while ONSL et al are only growing revenues at a few 10's of percent a quarter. Put it another way - if uBid's does the following completely reasonable sequential growth (Q+1 - 150% (Xmas), Q+2 - 70%, Q+3 - 55%, Q+4 - 45%) then they will revenues of more than $150M per quarter in less than 1 year. At a P/S ratio of 1 that is still a price twice the current stock price. It is that that convinced me to dip my toe in the water, although I admit that it gives me the heeby jeebies. Clark