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Strategies & Market Trends : Stock Attack -- A Complete Analysis -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: dennis michael patterson who wrote (17884)	11/21/1998 12:49:00 AM
From: Lee Lichterman III	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 42787

We are scared because we put value in front of investing. The guest market monitor on NBR tonight stated that we should all load up more AMZN and YHOO because they were the future like MSFT was in the 80s. When they pointed out that AMZN wasn't even projecting a profit until after 2001 he stated we needed to get in ahead of the crowd. Gee, I guess no one is buying it yet <g>. I hate to admit it but there are no real warning signs of a turn yet other that the ridiculous levels some of these stocks have run to and the lack of proven earnings companies to follow suit. Who would think that MU would outperform DELL. AMZN over just about anyone etc. On the other hand, advancers continue to beat decliners or else is basically flat. Utilities and trannies are flat to up, PG is climbing etc. In other words no signs of an immediate fall coming. We are definitely over bought and what will turn it? My bet is the earnings warnings that will start in the near future. I think we have a few more weeks max then the earnings warnings will start coming and as the Mo Mo guys start wondering who will pre announce next, they will realize that their companies have no earnings. I am trying to catch little rides up here and there but I will pull out of my long term longs again shortly and start day trading to playing couple day trades again from that point on. I believe this is a take out the old high rally to appease the TA gods then we start back down. This may prove to be a double top rally versus a higher high rally though. The other side of the coin is the three rate cut taboo. In the past, this has signalled a rising market. I am not enough of a economics wiz to be able to figure out what the true affect of these rate cuts should equate to in the attempt to offset earnings deterioration. I heard on NPR that credit card companies and Mortgages were not passing the savings along due to the high risk in this environment. In other words they are getting the money cheaper but it is only added insurance against loaning it at the old higher rate to someone who will most likely be out of work down the road as the recession hits and all the lay offs come. Obviously this is why these stocks are higher now. It is due to all the cost savings these companies will be realizing down the road from having to pay less workers. <g> Good Luck, Lee