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Non-Tech : KIDE- Low Float, Nice Financials ?? -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: ayahuasca who wrote (41)	11/21/1998 12:36:00 AM
From: jeremic	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 227

I saw this on another board-worth checking out-any comments appreciated. I spent a little more time with KIDE this afternoon and offer the following hopefully constructive thoughts. I sense quite a bit of enthusiasm on your part so please by no means construe this as "bashing the stock" you asked me to highlight some negatives and these are the ones I see: 1)Looking at the chart $8 is the critical point. 5 times the stock has reached it 2 times it has crossed and only one time (now) has it held. Note that this hold is in the midst of 40% NASDAQ/Small Cap rally that hasn't had a retreat yet. 2) Float is too limited to attract any serious institutional money. A money manager will rarely take a position in excess of 2- 3 times a small caps average daily float - this isn't many shares and as a result even if the money manager gets it right for a double or tripple it will only be a small splash in a many million $ portfolio. This begs the question --- who will be buying to make the shares run? Brigades of "e" investors? 3) The company is only a lisensor and a media buyer - they don't own much that they haven't already re-sold (in this case to HASBRO and probably Nintendo). Yes, if it is a hit they will make more, but its probably at best 10% net profits after distribition and other charges and it could be the deal has caps. (I couldn't immediately find anything which outlines the Hasbro deal in much depth, if you have something which seems better than this assumption let me know.) 4) Your point on the launch having been Monday is well taken, which is to say its my next FAO Swartz catelogue that will have the Pokemon stuff not the last one. I'm not knowledgeable in catelogue timing but I pose the question - are they too late for a hit? Interestingly I was in an FAO Swartz in late October and using my best Peter Lynch skills asked the sales clerk what was going to be this year's "Elmo" - she told me that the "Furby's" were the hot thing this year. Not knowing at that time what a Pokemon was I didn't ask the question but would be curious to know if their employees are trained in the answer to such questions and would now answer "Pokemon". 5) To the good - I see almost no downside to this stock ($8 is a solid base and no worse than about $6 as a floor). At the end of the day it all depends on if this is a hit or not. If it is, in all likelihood you get your double, maybe more. If not, 12x earnings where the stock is right now is pretty much fair to slightly up value so again, downside is limited. The other products are really just additional shots to get a hit. It doesn't really make for a pipeline since if WCW is a hit this year its a reasonable bet it won't be next year. Same with Pokemon. If there are liscence caps than it doesn't matter anyway. At this point I am not long or short KIDE. I may buy a couple hundred just for kicks now that I've spent some time looking at it -spend the proceeds on my kid. I wish you well and monsterously good luck.