Silicon Investor (SI) -- The First Internet Community

STOCKTALK

We've detected that you're using an ad content blocking browser plug-in or feature. Ads provide a critical source of revenue to the continued operation of Silicon Investor. We ask that you disable ad blocking while on Silicon Investor in the best interests of our community. If you are not using an ad blocker but are still receiving this message, make sure your browser's tracking protection is set to the 'standard' level.

Technology Stocks : Amazon.com, Inc. (AMZN) -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: accountclosed who wrote (27508)	11/21/1998 9:38:00 AM
From: Junkyardawg	Respond to of 164684

Are you having problems with your computer? Are you a computer wiz and would like to help all of us with our computer? Come over to this thread and help us all or get help. Subject 22366 Lamar

To: accountclosed who wrote (27508)	11/21/1998 9:43:00 AM
From: MoonBrother	Respond to of 164684

So, do we still have any shorts left on this board intact from last week's butt kicking? If so congratulations! If you stayed alive up to this point, next week might be your turn for start making some money. I see AMZN hitting $200 first thing Monday morning. If you survive on that blow, you may be happy to see that AMZN going downward from that point on. We could see AMZN goes back to $150 range later in the week. At this price point, almost no analysts are still encouraging their clients to jump into AMZN. In the meantime, if you know my track record (and I know some of you do), read my following recommendation of CATP. OT The following message is not about AMZN. It's about CATP. CATP is my latest choice for another 30% quick gain target in next 2 ~ 4 weeks. Many of you have traded with me back 2 months ago on VTSS. We had about 50% gain (from $20 to $30) in about a month. That was fun, wasn't it! Some of you then moved with me to NANO when it was at $5 ~ $6 range. I predicted that we could see NANO rising to $8 and have 30% ~ 60% gain in a month. Sure enough, one month later now NANO is at $8-5/8. If you like me, you have taken profits on both of these stocks. The question is where we should put our profit? Well, I did some extremely short term tradings in last week on LCOS, AMAT and AMZN, and made some quick profits there. (See my analysts reports and my own comments on these threads). But I have been searching for a relatively long term solution for my money. After some thorough research, I've made my choice. That is CATP. CATP is in IT (Information Technology) business, and it's the recognized leader in the sector. They have been enjoying 40% ~ 50% growth rate in the past several years until recent qtr, when its growth rate was reduced a little bit to 31%. The reason for the decline was mainly because of the Y2K issue. CATP's clients currently are putting lots of resources on correcting Y2K related problem, rather than initiate new IT projects. So obviously as the time passes, this issue will behind us, and CATP's clients will resume the spending on new IT projects. So right now it is probably the worst situation for IT sectors, just like couple months ago when SEMI sector was at the bottom. We should see the companies to resume IT projects in the late 2nd qtr of 99, and we will see a strong up tick by then giving the fact that we are in the absolute bottom right now. So, with CATP at $18 a share, about 1/3 of its early July value, I have seen tremendous potential profit on it. CATP's 98 EPS is at $.90. Its 99 EPS at $1.20 range. Since CATP is the leader in IT sector, traditionally it always trades at about 30 x EPS, so a reasonable value for CATP is at $35, i.e. about 28x of 99's EPS. The above is the fundamental side of the analysis. The below is the technical side of the analysis. With market rising so quickly from 7500 to 9150 in just 6 weeks, many people have made very healthy money along with it. We've seen several sectors turned corner one after another. With the smart money moving out of the hot sectors, they have to be put into other places. Thus, the currently coldest sectors may very well become the next hotest sectors. In my view, IT sector is definitely one of them. Personally I have sold 75% of VTSS holdings, 80% of my NANO holdings, and bot roughly 5,000 shares of CATP in last week. My 4 weeks target of CATP is $25, a 30% gain from current $18. My feeling is that DOW may very well be able to hit 9500 by year end, that will certainly pull all the stocks higher with it, especially those sitting in temporarily the coldest sectors. If you are convinced by my past track record as well as the above analysis, join me in CATP thread to read and discuss all the analysts' reports and my comments there. If you have money left, I strongly encourage you to buy some CATP. Like I saw VTSS at low $20, CATP at $18 may prove to be the lowest therefore the best price we might see in the next 2 ~ 3 years. My feeling is that CATP should go back above $30 by 1st qtr of 99, and may move above $50 again in 2000. Good luck! MB

To: accountclosed who wrote (27508)	11/21/1998 9:59:00 AM
From: Tradegod	Respond to of 164684

Why I think the stock price will pull back. 1. Smart shorts were boxed. Some may have unboxed during Thursday's big late collapse but probably rebought Friday leading to the sharp rise. Some(including myself) sold at the close Friday. The strong buying late Friday was not from traders wanting to be net long going into Monday. 2. The wad has been shot in terms of news. Videos, gift shops have been announced. The rate cut has occurred. Probably nil chance for a cut in December. And the potential looming stock split has now come out. 3. We just ran 55 points in 4 days. Many of us feel much more complacent about this move than the back in June. Remember that this last move occurred from a base of 125! We're now at 180! I think a pull back toward the old high of 147 is likely. The exact time frame is anyone's guess, but there are some cracks in the internet sector this week. I would guess however based on Thursday's collapse that if the selling starts, it could accelerate. Traders will nibble at an 8 point drop, and then sell it if it drops 11, and so on.