Silicon Investor (SI) -- The First Internet Community

STOCKTALK

We've detected that you're using an ad content blocking browser plug-in or feature. Ads provide a critical source of revenue to the continued operation of Silicon Investor. We ask that you disable ad blocking while on Silicon Investor in the best interests of our community. If you are not using an ad blocker but are still receiving this message, make sure your browser's tracking protection is set to the 'standard' level.

Technology Stocks : Silkroad -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Frank A. Coluccio who wrote (111)	11/21/1998 2:52:00 PM
From: ahhaha	Respond to of 626

A very careful analysis I would say. First, you do homage to the establishment and then you make a bold and brilliant suggestion with the ultimate slap to the entrenched with an aggressive roll-out schedule. Even I, the wild man, haven't suggested it could come together that quickly, but given the thesis of this thread, you're right on the money. A clever piece of political fence walking for sure. I see we have the same "gut" feel. I have a strong conviction on the technical side without as yet being able to give the critical details although I'm getting closer via gedanken back engineering. The assumption of technological or infrastructure exclusivity between SR and WDM must be thrown out both by us and by the established companies. Let's take the Enron project. Say they build their WDM system. There's no reason that you couldn't place SR equipment at arbitrary points along the cable and co-operate the SR signal while the WDM color is being transmitted too(counter arguments accepted). I'm suggesting here that the two need not be multiplexed. If this is true, then there is a non-conflicting upgrade path and the path has features not held by WDM. Features like non-interfering bi-directionality, arbitrary access point, only one strand used,aside from bandwidth advantage, less complexity, and cost. It may be the case that SR becomes the means by which the addition of more WDM colors remains manageable. Perhaps you could call it an overseer of the mule train. This supplementary role seems superfluous because long carriers like QWST and LVLT will jump on innovative techniques that don't require more wire pulling and substantially scale without exponentially increasing cost and complexity. If SR gets going on the long haul and proves to be viable there, the WDM metro clinch would soon be busted too. If SR can establish itself on the long haul, ethernet is history even on the local loop. Ethernet wouldn't last two years with extensive broadband build-out because the public's demand creating heavy load would blow out the ability of electronic signals and their pipes to carry it. Ethernet might be able to hang on for several years in the last mile from headend to site simply because of the anticipated entrenched infrastructure of HFC. On the other hand if T junks TCI and builds their Pure net on the telephone ROW, it's goodbye in the last mile too. I believe in 10 years that will happen as the public develops voracious demand for broadband services. There is no question that "barrier in thinking" is a problem. It is mostly a problem for the established networking companies if the thesis of this thread, that SR will work at least as well as advertised, comes to pass. All their momentum is devoted to a technologically narrow vision. This has been historically a disaster for technology companies and what we have here is a whole industry built around a specious assumption that their technology is unimpugnable. The engineers may not believe that, but they have to build something and until 11/3/98, ethernet and WDM optical were the best models available. Much depends on the SR technical details of course.