Silicon Investor (SI) -- The First Internet Community

STOCKTALK

We've detected that you're using an ad content blocking browser plug-in or feature. Ads provide a critical source of revenue to the continued operation of Silicon Investor. We ask that you disable ad blocking while on Silicon Investor in the best interests of our community. If you are not using an ad blocker but are still receiving this message, make sure your browser's tracking protection is set to the 'standard' level.

Technology Stocks : Ciena (CIEN) -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: hoffy who wrote (5541)	11/21/1998 2:43:00 PM
From: Scott Bergquist	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 12623

Options Expiration.. I agree this is -not- manipulation due to options expiration..that is usually characterized by a stock price very close to a strike price, to cause maximum pain. Price action hovering around 17.5 all day, to close at 17 7/16, I would characterize -that- as options-related. No news on the wire...??!! Think this through. If there was news, then the stock would rise to meet the announcement. You wouldn't see "merger talks with Cisco, buyout at 35....CIEN rises to 18.25". I think you see here buying by big players (GSCO, MLCO) at this price, with an acceptable price (18) factored as to likelihood to the truth/timeline of a buyout scenario. If there is more "leakage" (maybe someone stands at the airport watching for "names"??) you will see a concurrent rise Monday..

To: hoffy who wrote (5541)	11/21/1998 8:10:00 PM
From: john dodson	Respond to of 12623

Huffy, > why just options expiration? A dramatic one-day spike in volume for a particular security on options expiration, only to return to normal volume levels is very common. Check it out, and "you will learn". > If it was that easy then you could just buy a stock when options are expiring. This statement is wrong on 2 counts. One, I never claimed increased volumes on options expiration is predictable. It often happens, but does not mean that it must happen. Secondly, increased volumes, when they occur clearly do not mean the stock will trade up. It could just as easily go down on heavier-than-normal volume in the absence of any other news strong enough to move the stock. > Earnings in 3 weeks rumored to beat the street handily. This is interesting, and the first that I've heard of it. Perhaps you can share with the thread the source of these "rumors", especially, since Ciena's comments from last quarter's report on 9/14 do not support such "rumors": ciena.com "Commenting on his expectations for CIENA's fiscal fourth quarter and fiscal year 1999, Patrick Nettles, CIENA's President and Chief Executive Officer, said: "Feedback received from our sales force indicates that the uncertainty created by the events of the last few weeks and attempts of our competitors to capitalize on that uncertainty may delay or alter some customers' near-term purchase decisions. As a result, and due to the loss of expected incremental business at DTI, we believe fiscal fourth quarter revenues and operating results will be materially below those reported for the third fiscal quarter." > Just watch Monday and you will learn Learn what? Sure Ciena could go up on Monday. Could just as easily not go up. What am I to "learn" from either case? So far the only basis for predicting either that you have presented is rumor #1 (takeover), rumor #2 (beat the street), rumor #3 (big contract coming) and hypothetical #1 (short squeeze). > Hope you aren't short Actually, I'm not. Why, do you think that everyone who doesn't buy into the three rumors and one hypothetical above is short? I happen to be long Ciena, and think it has great potential if you're willing to be patient. Sure these "takeover" rumors are usually good for a few points on the upside. That's not what's gonna sustain this stock on the upside, unless it really happens, though. As Ciena rebuilds its revenue story, and establishes tier 1 customers, Ciena share price will rebound substantially. Just as Ciena was overdone on the upside north of $90 earlier this year, it was overdone on the downside when it went south of $10. Fair value is currently somewhere in between. Even the mid-point of $50 is well over twice the current valuation. Pretty good upside if you're wiling to be patient for it. Good luck, John Dodson