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To: brent gephart who wrote (7026)11/21/1998 6:41:00 PM
From: brent gephart  Respond to of 9695
 
Etec Systems: The (photo)mask of misery

Following Tuesday's better-than-expected results from Applied Materials (Nasdaq:AMAT - news) , a number of Wall Street analysts sounded cautiously optimistic that an end was in sight for the industry slump in semiconductor capital equipment. It didn't take long for Etec to rain on that parade. Etec Systems (Nasdaq:ETEC - news) is the leading maker of tools for photomask pattern generation. After the bell on Wednesday it did post better-than-expected earnings for its FY99 first quarter, but for the year as a whole Etec warned of flat revenues and a 30% to 40% drop in earnings. So much for a light at the end of the tunnel...

Chip equipment stocks haven't exactly been the darlings of Wall Street this year, but they have made a noteworthy rebound in recent weeks. Etec tumbled from over $60 in April to less than $15 as of early-October, only to rebound to $31 as of Wednesday. The industry slump began in earnest last Fall with the Asian crisis and overcapacity in memory chip manufacturing. The economic strife has actually spread to other areas of the globe, but certain areas such as South Korea have stabilized and memory chip (specifically DRAM) prices are finally shownig signs of firming. Investors moved back into the chip equipment stocks in the past month on the belief that the worst of the slump was over and the risk/reward at those lower stock prices made a compelling investment thesis.

They will no doubt want to revisit that thesis in the wake of Etec's outlook for the year ahead. The company stated "While the long-term need for Etec's leading edge systems at 0.25 micron and below remains strong, capital budgets for the captive maskmakers in Japan, Korea and Taiwan have been sharply reduced or placed on hold, resulting in a near-term decline of orders. Among most merchant maskmakers, capital budgets remain highly uncertain. As a result, our visibility for the remainder of fiscal 1999 is poor and we are, therefore, cautious in our short-term outlook for sales. We anticipate that revenues for fiscal 1999 will be essentially flat compared to fiscal 1998 revenues of $288.3 million and that earnings will be 30 to 40 percent below last fiscal year's results."

Analysts have struggled all year to balance the near-term dismal industry conditions with Etec's dominant position in the market for mask pattern generation tools. With a market share exceeding 75%, Etec could ultimately reap a massive windfall from the ongoing upgrade cycle in the chip industry. The mask-writing equipment market is estimated at $400 million for 1998, and analysts generally foresee a 20% compound annual rate of growth for the next several years.

This niche is small but lucrative, fast growing, and with positive pricing trends. Etec's pattern-generation systems use laser- and electron-beams to create photomasks, which are like stencils used to guide the printing of circuit patterns onto semiconductor wafers. Chip designs are continually moving toward greater complexity with tinier and tinier circuitry, driving demand for leading-edge photomask technology.

Unlike most areas of technology these days where prices are continually falling, average selling prices in many segments of the chip equipment business are rising sharply with each step up in performance. Etec, for example, is getting around $10 million per system for its 0.25-micron machines, compared to $6 million for previous generation machines that provide line-widths of 0.35-micron. For the next smaller geometry of 0.18-micron, which could begin shipping in the next quarter or two, Etec is expected to bring in $12-$14 million per unit. These smaller geometries enable chipmakers to pack more circuitry onto chips, creating higher performance.

While the market for commoditized products such as 4mb memory chips has softened substantially, demand and pricing trends remain solid for the leading-edge chip segments. This supports a favorable supply-demand situation for the advanced photomask equipment, which of course carries higher price tags. Furthermore, the increasing complexity and density of chip circuitry results in substantially longer write times to create photomasks. The most advanced masks now require as much as 24 hours to complete the pattern generation, compared to a few hours for simpler ones. As such, mask makers need more Etec units to meet the demand for advanced photomasks. And as the number of layers of circuitry on each chip rises, the number of masks required for each chip goes up as well.

It should be noted that while Etec carries the promise of strong long-term growth in its market niche, dominant market share and rising average selling prices, it also carries some serious risks. In particular, since the company ships an average of just 10 units per quarter, it can have a major disappointment in quarterly results if just one of the multi-million dollar units doesn't ship on time. That's happened in several recent quarters when the high-precision instruments failed to meet a single system specification.

Etec is also facing some potential competition from Ultratech Stepper (Nasdaq:UTEK - news) , which primarily makes steppers (another element of the photolithography process) but is expanding into the mask-writing business. Time will tell whether Ultratech can meet the demanding specifications of advanced photomask pattern-generation, and Etec seems to have a valuable edge in the technology, but this competitive threat bears watching.

Meantime, it will be interesting to see how Etec's stock responds to the latest warning about the rest of this year. Analysts will have to slash estimates for FY99 by 70 to 85 cents based on Etec's guidance and the current EPS consensus of $2.12. It seems for now that any light at the end of the tunnel is probably an oncoming train.



To: brent gephart who wrote (7026)11/21/1998 6:52:00 PM
From: brent gephart  Respond to of 9695
 
SDL Receives $1.275 Million DARPA Contract

SAN JOSE, Calif., Nov. 18 /PRNewswire/ -- SDL, Inc. (Nasdaq: SDLI - news) has been awarded a three-year $1.275 million contract by the Defense Advanced Research Projects Agency (DARPA) under the Optical Micro Networks Program for the development of 2.5 gigabit transceivers for use in the harsh temperature environment of avionics platforms.

These transceivers, unlike existing commercial counterparts, would have a small footprint, minimal mass and would be able to work 'uncooled' over the full military temperature range from -55.C to 125.C and high humidity with very high reliability. The new technologies would reduce end-user costs by having a simple uncooled package. Additionally, the small size of the transceiver is ideally suited to avionics requirements.

To date, SDL has developed semiconductor laser diodes capable of error-free high-speed data transmission at temperatures up to 225.C. These lasers have the same reliability pedigree as lasers currently being used in gigabit data link components being manufactured at SDL for use in high speed network applications within satellites and are suitable for a wide variety of data links in avionics applications. This work is being carried out in collaboration with Harris Corporation [NYSE:HRS - news] and Boeing Corporation and is part of the Parallel Optical Network Interconnect (PONI) Consortium headed by Hewlett Packard.

SDL designs, manufactures and markets semiconductor optoelectronic integrated circuits, semiconductor lasers, fiber optic related products and optoelectronic based systems. The Company's products are used in a diversity of markets such as telecommunications, fiber optics, cable television, dense wavelength division multiplexing, satellite communications, printing, medical and materials processing markets.

Statements in this press release which are not historical, including statements regarding SDL's or management's intentions, hopes, beliefs, expectations, projections, representations, plans or predictions of the future are forward-looking statements within the meaning of the Private Securities Litigation Reform Act of 1995. Such statements include statements regarding the operating specifications and reliability of the Company's products and their ability to reduce end-user costs. It is important to note that the Company's actual results could differ materially from those in any such forward-looking statements. Factors that could cause actual results to differ materially include risks related to uncertainties in the actual performance of products in the field, qualifications and risks related to customer acceptance of new products, delays or cancellation of orders, and the risk factors listed from time to time in the Company's SEC reports including but not limited to the annual report on Form 10-K for the year ended December 31, 1997, and quarterly reports on Forms 10-Q.



To: brent gephart who wrote (7026)11/21/1998 6:54:00 PM
From: brent gephart  Respond to of 9695
 
Has anyone heard of this SDLI.

SDL, Inc. is a designer, manufacturer and marketer of semiconductor optoelectronic integrated circuits and high power semiconductor lasers.

This might be an interesting fit with Jmar. Maybe they would like to own Jmar.

Brent



To: brent gephart who wrote (7026)11/21/1998 6:58:00 PM
From: brent gephart  Respond to of 9695
 
11/10/98 - ISMECA SA SELECTS SDL AS EXCLUSIVE SUPPLIER OF LASER MARKING SYSTEMS

SAN JOSE, Calif., Nov. 10 /PRNewswire/ -- SDL, Inc. (Nasdaq: [SDLI]) announced today that Ismeca SA, Le Chaux de Fonds, Switzerland, has selected SDL as its exclusive supplier of laser marking equipment to be integrated onto its standard semiconductor package handling equipment. Ismeca SA is the leading manufacturer of package handling equipment in the discrete semiconductor component marketplace with an estimated 40 percent market share worldwide.

The SDL FLM1 laser marking system utilizes SDL"s award winning fiber laser technology to provide dramatic improvements in size, reliability, cost of ownership and cost of integration. The technical advantages of the SDL system and its ability to mark a wide variety of IC packages, including discrete devices, integrated circuits, and micro ball grid arrays, has resulted in rapid acceptance of the FLM1 marking system.

"SDL supplies the smallest, most reliable, lowest operating cost laser marking system available worldwide. These features will further improve the marketability and performance of our equipment," said Remy Degen, Corporate Marketing Director for Ismeca SA.

"We are very excited to be selected by Ismeca as their exclusive supplier," said Donald R. Scifres, Chairman and Chief Executive Officer. "Ismeca"s products maintain a leadership position in the discrete semiconductor markets. And this relationship will further expand our penetration in this exciting market segment."

Statements in this press release which are not historical, including statements regarding SDL"s or management"s intentions, hopes, beliefs, expectations, representations, projections, plans or predictions of the future are forward-looking statements within the meaning of the Private Securities Litigation Reform Act of 1995. Such statements include statements regarding SDL"s award winning fiber laser technology, its improvements in size, reliability, cost of ownership, cost of integration, its technical advantages and ability, the rapid acceptance of the new marking systems, and the belief that SDL"s market penetration will be enhanced through its relationship with Ismeca. It is important to note that the Company"s actual results could differ materially from those in any such forward-looking statements. Factors that could cause actual results to differ materially include risks related to marketplace acceptance of new product introductions and product introductions by rival manufacturers, new and continuing customer qualification of products, customer acceptance of new products, delays or cancellations of customer orders, and the risk factors listed from time to time in the Company"s SEC reports including but not limited to the annual report on Form 10-K for the year ended December 31, 1997, and quarterly reports on Forms 10-Q.

SDL designs, manufactures and markets semiconductor optoelectronic integrated circuits, semiconductor lasers, fiber optic related products and optoelectronic based systems. The company"s products are used in a diversity of markets such as telecommunications, cable television, dense wavelength division multiplexing, satellite communications, printing, medical, and materials processing markets.



To: brent gephart who wrote (7026)11/21/1998 6:59:00 PM
From: brent gephart  Read Replies (2) | Respond to of 9695
 
What is a Laser Marking System, and is this something Jmar can do?

Brent