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Technology Stocks : Apple Inc. -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Slide Rule who wrote (20867)	11/22/1998 1:11:00 AM
From: RX4PROFIT	Read Replies (3) \| Respond to of 213177

<<Dennis, any idea what happens to AAPL, now that both expirations and Comdex have passed?>> AAPL has not reached fair value and has been dragging behind the other box makers and trading sideways for the past 45 days or so. This has been in absence of any substantial bad news and is unusual since AAPL's best quarter (1) is now in progress. The possible bad news exceptions were the inaccurate iMac article Goldberg wrote re dropping iMac sales (which Eric Yang rebutted) and Avie's testimony in the MS DoJ hearings. I believe both of these events had a minor impact +/- on the sideway trading and IMO the major cause lies elsewhere. I believe the major reason for AAPL trading sideways, as I've stated before, is because a major investor/investors have been trading off their AAPL position and not for the reason of any bad news present or pending which is normally associated with a sell off but simply because of the past/present market volatility. What brought me to this conclusion? Because it's contrary to AAPL's present fundamentals, their outward forecast and it has been a controlled and orderly sell off with large block buyers accumulating AAPL at the discounted average (low P/E) trading price of $35 (trades were between $33 to $38 during this period) and abnormally high cross-trading activity . These investors were not rushing out of AAPL, they were tiptoeing out, simply trying to protect their ROI by accumulating buyers along the way and averaging out their position with no rush to bail. Then, MMs came in close to expiry to maximize their position trading down to $35 and exert the "Max-Pain" for the options players. So what happens now? IMO, AAPL moves up to it's earned fair trading value of $50+ by Quarter 1 earnings announcement. Reasons (to mention a few): 1. I believe the major investor/investors are done trading off their AAPL positions (the size of the block trades have reversed the past 7 or so trading days with the ask size greater than bid size). I'll be keeping an eye on the size of the ask/bid blocks as AAPL reaches $38. 2. AAPL's fundamentals are strong through the next 2+ quarters with potential market share steadily increasing, Xmas, MacWorld, iMac and P1 PB in the offing. 3. AAPL is UNDERVALUED with the lowest P/E of the box mfgs - keep in mind AAPL has a niche market with a 23%+ gross profit (higher than other box mfgs). 4. My outlook for the overall market through April/99 is neutral.