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Politics : Ask Michael Burke -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Knighty Tin who wrote (37247)	11/22/1998 4:18:00 PM
From: Tommaso	Read Replies (2) \| Respond to of 132070

Yes, ahahaha (or whatever) is writing like a very lucid monetarist. Long ago I read the Schwartz and Friedman "Monetary History of the United States" at least twice, and became completely convinced, but I don't think monetarists have ever adequately responded to the real possibilities for accelerating productivity that can create goods and services even faster than the Fed (at times) creates money. I am still trying to figure where various people get rates like 15% or 16% for either M2 or M3 growth. The annualized Fed figures are very high, but still around 12-13%. Let me see how the following formats: MONEY STOCK AND DEBT MEASURES Percent change at seasonally adjusted annual rates ---------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- M1 M2 M3 Debt ---------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- 3 Months from July 1998 TO Oct. 1998 2.5/ 12.0/ 13.5/ 5.9 6 Months from Apr. 1998 TO Oct. 1998 -0.4/ 8.3/ 9.4/ 6.0/ 12 Months from Oct. 1997 TO Oct. 1998 1.6/ 8.5/ 10.8/ 6.2/ Thirteen weeks ending November 9 , 1998 from thirteen weeks ending: Aug. 10, 1998 (13 weeks previous) 0.1/ 10.0/ 10.6 May 11, 1998 (26 weeks previous) -0.9/ 7.8/ 9.1 Nov. 10, 1997 (52 weeks previous) 0.8/ 8.0/ 10.4 ---------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- Not so good format. But the successions of percentages are M1/M2/M3/Debt. As I recall, the goods/services inflation tends to appear about two years after monetary inflation. So maybe the Fed is counting on some kind of moderate decline in equities, or at least stagnation, to dampen inflation before it can start, along with the effects of cheaper imports from China, etc, and the continuing mass suicide of oil producing nations. But they will have to pull in on the money at some point or they really will get 8% inflation, which they don't want. I was just re-reading David Dreman's 1977 analysis of the 1972 bubble; what we have is bigger, and at some point will take on a downward dynamic of its own independent of Fed action.

To: Knighty Tin who wrote (37247)	11/22/1998 10:04:00 PM
From: geewiz	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 132070

Hi all, Sorry if this has been posted, it's Gretchen in todays' NYT'S; NEW YORK -- The wondrous innovations of America's technology companies make them the envy of the world. But for some of the biggest names in technology, one of the most profitable inventions is not about computer hardware, software or microchips. It's about finance, and it is generating hundreds of millions of dollars -- tax-free -- a year. Intel, Microsoft and, to a lesser degree, Dell Computer sell put warrants on their own stock to outside investors. The warrants give buyers the right, for a limited period, to sell shares of stock back to the company at a set "strike" price below the market at the time they buy. In the quarter ended Sept. 30 alone, Microsoft took in $225 million from the sale of puts -- a sum equal to 13.4 percent of its net income in the period. nytimes.com Sober reminder for us borken bears!!! best,art

To: Knighty Tin who wrote (37247)	11/23/1998 10:04:00 AM
From: Skeeter Bug	Read Replies (2) \| Respond to of 132070

mike, does this graphical representation of represent your pii feelings pretty accurately? ;-) Message 6516516

To: Knighty Tin who wrote (37247)	11/23/1998 10:25:00 AM
From: MythMan	Read Replies (2) \| Respond to of 132070

I heard Austria was just bought out by the Nasdaq in a stock swap valued at $19 billion which is the current market cap of Yahoo! -g-

To: Knighty Tin who wrote (37247)	11/23/1998 10:38:00 AM
From: Activatecard	Read Replies (2) \| Respond to of 132070

MB, What will this mean for the chip equipment makers? 12:41pm EST 19-Nov-98 Goldman Sachs (MOORE) INTC INTC.O Intel Corp. : Breakfast w/CFO Andy Bryant; RL Goldman, Sachs & Co. Investment Research Intel Corp. * * Breakfast w/CFO Andy Bryant; RL * * ********************************************************************** * This morning we had breakfast with Intel CFO Andy Bryant. Mr. Bryant explained and elaborated details of several key issues from the analyst meeting last week, including further detail on the cost cutting efforts. The overall tone of the meeting was positive, consistent with the events of recent weeks (the positive preannouncement and the analyst meeting). ********************************************************************** Joe Moore (New York) 1-212 902-6834 - NY Equity Research ========== NOTE 12:33 PM November 19, 1998 =================== This morning, we met with Intel CEO Andy Bryant on his investor relations tour on the East Coast. Last week's positive preannouncement and subsequent analyst meeting took some of the drama away, but we heard substantial positive, informative details on some of the topics touched on at the analyst meeting. We list a few of the important bits of information below: * Reiterated that business strength is widespread, across all microprocessor categories but also across flash, networking, chipsets, graphics, etc. As the company said at the analyst meeting, Intel's inventories are likely to be at an even lower level at the end of Q4 than at the end of Q3, as they remain sold out. The company has combed the customer base for excess 'safety stock inventory', and while they said that some customers would like to do that they are currently unable to. The company will not be able to respond to any surge turns bookings demand in December. They increased production input in July and then again in September, so significant supply should still come online by the end of Q4. Mr. Bryant reiterated that they have plenty of capacity and it is an issue of wafer starts. * There is still a debate within Intel about the impact of Y2k on the seasonal trend through 1999, and the company feels that there is adequate rationale for almost any argument that you could make. As a result, the strategy is to have enough capacity and inventory buffer to handle any spike in demand that they might see in 99. Still too early to make any real comment on Q1, which will require sell through data. * The cost-cutting effort is surprisingly independent of fab loading, as the materials cost has driven a substantially more variable-cost oriented model. The socketed Celeron (P2 w/integrated L2 cache in a 370 pin socket format instead of slot One) will clearly drive down variable costs significantly. That product ships in January, and there is clearly infrastructure being built for that now as we saw several 370 pin socket motherboards on display at Comdex. The company reiterated that while they had saved over $1 billion in Cap Ex from the reuse strategy in the 0.25 micron transition, the savings could be greater in the 0.18 micron transition since there will be no greenfield fabs in 1999 (as 0.25 micron fabs are transitioned to 0.18). Overhead cost per wafer on 0.18 micron should be substantially lower in the early ramp than the cost was on a 0.25 micron wafer at the same point in the 856 ramp. * The company still has not finalized the budget for 1999 (and it could be up, down, or flat from 98 levels), minimizing capital spending is clearly a major part of the plan.