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Technology Stocks : Altaba Inc. (formerly Yahoo) -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Saeed Al-Bahhar who wrote (15389)	11/22/1998 2:49:00 PM
From: Dave Mansfield	Respond to of 27307

All I'll challenge is your assumption that revenues will continue to increase 33% quarter to quarter. To assume Yahoo will be 10 times larger than it is now by the year 2000 is a pretty bold assumption in my humble opinion. Try something like this: Year to year growth in revenues 1998-1999...+120% 1999-2000....+75% 2000-2001....+50% 2001-????....+35-40% annually

To: Saeed Al-Bahhar who wrote (15389)	11/22/1998 3:59:00 PM
From: g.w. barnard	Respond to of 27307

These are pretty big numbers and may hold out, but i doubt it. Other startups will get eat into yahoos base just as lycos has done, (the ceo was on cnbc touting the fact that they are number 2 behind yahoo and capturing market share). So lets use another anology and look at lost market share: 1) 3% a quarter loss in market share 2) revenue reduction of 10% yr over yr. 3) profit margin lowing to 25% since they are no longer able to command the same level of advertising fees. tulup bulbs indeed. I will say i do not know when reason will return (wallstreet just came out with a statement about aol buying netscape, this ought to give internet stocks another boost) but i will get in then. gw

To: Saeed Al-Bahhar who wrote (15389)	11/22/1998 4:14:00 PM
From: Original Mad Dog	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 27307

The explanation of my calculation is over on the YHOO thread, and since my AOL software at the moment isn't allowing me to copy text into message posts (anybody else had that problem? If so, please send me a private message with solution. Thanks.), I won't copy it here. But I reached pretty much the same profit and revenue numbers you did. The difference is that I didn't assume that in the next 25 months YHOO stock would not appreciate at all. Instead, I took an assumption from a YHOO optimist's post that the stock would reach $1,000 (Actually they said $100 billion market cap, which is a little over 1000 share price). The point was that the upside isn't here, because even to get to a PE of 37, which is bigger than most, you have to assume ridiculously wild growth and no stock appreciation. Where's the upside in that? So as a long-term play, the more numbers I look at the less sense YHOO makes. You have a way with numbers; please try to convince me otherwise. MAD DOG