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Politics : Formerly About Applied Materials -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Judy who wrote (26606)	11/22/1998 2:54:00 PM
From: Gottfried	Respond to of 70976

Judy, AMAT price did not dip as low as prior graph history would have me made to expect. This tells me the stock is seen more favorably by investors than before. SEMI orders vs AMAT price geocities.com Thanks for your comments. Gottfried

To: Judy who wrote (26606)	11/22/1998 4:14:00 PM
From: Paul V.	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 70976

Judy,I've posted investors should accumulate INTC on the plateau of 65-85 for months and await the inevitable breakout for the next sweetspot in the semi cycle, similarly I believe investors should accumulate AMAT between 25-35 and not sweat the details ... its day will come in the not distance future. FWIW from a long-term investor who trades the fluctuations.<i/> When I laid out and compared Gottfried's charts on price vrs orders and the following chart of orders vrs shipments I have come to certain conclusions. geocities.com Comparing Goffried's price graph with the Semi equipment orders & shipments it appears that the price really started jumping after when the balance of orders and shipment occurred with the orders exceeding the shipment orders and both were going up. I used a highlighter to highlight the spread between orders and shipment from December, '96, through October, '97. But note, from the DW expanded AMAT chart and Gottfried's semi equip orders vs AMAT price chart that WS jumped off board during the middle/last of August even though the orders and shipments spread were staying near the same and had not peaked until October. When we look at Gottfried's charts 1998 for the SEMI's should have gone a hell of alot lower, but WS held the stock up. This is reinforced by the Investment Business Daily's AMAT Relative Strengh which I am tracking using the DW method. It now is at 87%. It's lowest this year in June and July was in 20% to 30% range vrs 10-20% in 1996 Big Bucks, IMO, was right on related to the orders and shipment of semi's but did not see how the Relative strength of AMAT was holding up. Then, looking at Gottfried's comparisons of AMAT's past years prices it appears that the peaks come normally in August. This may indicate that around the first/middle part of Aug is the annual time to get out on the up cycle. Let's watch closely these orders and shipment numbers as we proceed up in this cycle. If it continues to track like '96 then we should be reaching equilibrium of orders and shipment in January. From that point the orders should exceed the shipment giving us a surplus spread and AMAT'S price will continuing to go up. We probably will have a plateau from Jan-Feb. Others on this thread please make an analysis and critique what thoughts we have come. Big Bucks and Teri you are especially invited,<g> Your knowledge and expertise is very important. Thanks. Paul V