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Technology Stocks : Compaq -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: S.C. Barnard who wrote (37162)	11/22/1998 6:54:00 PM
From: rupert1	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 97611

+++++OT+++++++++ 20% by 31st December, 1998 (even if it comes down again before that date). I'm struggling with my own rules. Thought about it all day. Simple answer is I don't have one that I can recommend without huge qualifications. I have already given some fundamental reasons for CRUS (which I own) and which has come from $6 to $ 12 1/2 in a short time (but it may retrace tomorrow). I very cautiously expect it to reach $15-18 before the target date. Major restructuring, resulting in immediate profitability from retained core products, improving prospects for the sector, major shareholder who owns 12% at least, probably controls more through associates, and who is looking for rapid appreciation of shareholder valuation. Restructuring news in the next few weeks should boost stock price. There has been impressive accumulation, on very high volume and the charts are very positive for timing. HOWEVER since I have already discussed this on the thread, I should pick another one with a larger capitalization. (OK I can hear "Cheat") I choose Computer Associates (CA). I would be more confident if it extended its current pullback to about $37. However, even at current price of $40 it should do at least 15% by the target date and 20% by earnings in January. (Given its characteristic volatility, it will do 20% easily if you get in and out a few times for 1-3 points a time!) Reasons: oversold on warnings of slowdown in spending by some of its clients: tremendous single-minded growth of its new services business through small acquisitions and organic growth, history of recovering from share-price set-backs, history of meeting and beating expectations. You might be impressed that Accumpora (?) also recommended it recently - not that that impressed me). (Somebody else make the rules for the next "competition") Victor