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Strategies & Market Trends : Waiting for the big Kahuna -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Bull RidaH who wrote (34166)	11/23/1998 7:45:00 AM
From: donald sew	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 94695

David, Thanks for that post. WOW, thats alot of work. Im not an E-waver, but I respect its value in forcasting. Its not whether one is right or wrong, but the sharing of knowledge. Many indexes (RUT, SOX, TRAN, XAL, BKX, XBD, CYC, FPP) have rebounded about 50% or less, which could fall under the category of a BEAR MARKET rally for these indexes, if they do not continue up and reverse down. And I guess that more than 50%+ of all stocks fit into that category at this time. Seeya

To: Bull RidaH who wrote (34166)	11/23/1998 9:20:00 PM
From: Investor2	Read Replies (2) \| Respond to of 94695

I really like it when you back up and give your overall read from Supercycle Wave on down. Thanks. Re: "1787-1929- Supercycle Wave 1 '29-'42- Supercycle Wave 2 '42-'66- Supercycle Wave 3 '66-'82- Supercycle Wave 4 ...." Data prior to 1929 is sketchy, at best. Is it possible that your labeling of Supercycle waves is off by two? Could '42-'66 really be Wave 1 instead of Wave 3? That would put us near the end of Supercycle Wave 3 now. Best wishes, I2

To: Bull RidaH who wrote (34166)	11/24/1998 9:42:00 AM
From: Arik T.G.	Respond to of 94695

David, Applause to your work. But I still do not feel comfortable with your count. 1. One cannot disregard the very clear impulse wave from 11/97 to 7/98 (-top early Dec. '97 is 1, bottom Jan. '98 is 2, top Apr. '98 is 3, bottom Jun. '98 is 4, and the inevitable Jul. '98 as 5). 2. Comparing bear markets: The significance of the '87 crash is IMO overrated. The '90-'91 bear is IMO of a greater magnitude then the '87 "hiccup", and the '73-'74 bear is even of a greater importance. What do you say about this: End of 1974 bear begins cycle: 1975- 1981..... cycle wave 1 1981- 1982..... cycle wave 2 1982- 1989..... cycle wave 3 (1987 top marks the end of primary 3) 1989- 1991..... cycle wave 4 1991- 1998..... cycle wave 5 On cycle wave 5 I found: Primary 1 from 10/90 to 2/94 Primary 2 from 2/94 to 12/94 Primary 3 from 12/94 to 8/97 Primary 4 from 8/97 to 11/97 Primary 5 from 11/97 to 7/98 (maybe it's just int. 1 of primary 5?) as depicted above. '29 marked the top of a supercycle and 1975-1998 is the 5 of the 69 years supercycle, and also end of the 214 years Grand Supercycle. ATG