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Technology Stocks : Rambus (RMBS) - Eagle or Penguin -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: unclewest who wrote (10092)	11/23/1998 5:58:00 AM
From: unclewest	Respond to of 93625

royalty revenue to skyrocket quarter by quarter. total dram sales in 99. 17,000,000,000 estimated rdram share end of 99(20%) 3,400,000,000 and growing fast. royalty estimate(1.5%) end of 99. 51,000,000 royalty payments last quarter 2,200,000. i am using 1.5% conservative i think since the co has used figures around 2.5-5%.

To: unclewest who wrote (10092)	11/23/1998 7:06:00 PM
From: Thomas C. Donald	Respond to of 93625

UncleWest: You cited an article stating that $17 billion worth of RAM would be produced worldwide next year. I have some questions which you or someone else might be able to answer which will be helpful in estimating future earnings: 1. What is a reasonable estimate of the value (the price charged by the chip manufacturer) of worldwide RAM production for 1999, 2000, and 2001? 2. What percentage of worldwide RAM production will be manufactured under Rambus licenses during 1999, 2000, and 2001? 3. What will be Rambus's average percentage royalty on RAM during 1999, 2000, and 2001? I presume that the $17 billion cited in your article might be a reasonable number to use for my first question, if it represents the amount paid to chip manufacturers, as opposed to, for instance, retail prices for RAM modules. Is anyone familiar with these numbers? My very-uneducated guesses are currently: 1999: $15b x 10% x 1.20% = $18m 2000: $17b x 20% x 1.00% = $34m 2001: $20b x 40% x 0.80% = $64m Any other estimates to further everyone's education?