To: jjs_ynot who wrote (2313 ) 11/24/1998 1:02:00 AM From: chirodoc Read Replies (1) | Respond to of 3990
Top Stories: It's Mating Season Again for Internet Stocks By Suzanne Galante Staff Reporter 11/23/98 8:28 PM ET SAN FRANCISCO -- Even though America Online (AOL:NYSE) has not yet officially acquired Netscape Communications (NSCP:Nasdaq), talks between the two Internet companies have rejuvenated speculation that Net stocks will again lure investments from established media companies. The linking of old and new media started back in June when NBC acquired a 19% stake in CNET's (CNWK:Nasdaq) Snap Web search and navigation site, with the option to increase its ownership in Snap to 60%. Soon afterward, Disney (DIS:NYSE) bought a stake in Infoseek (SEEK:Nasdaq), sparking rumors that the other Net startups would also join up with major media players. (TheStreet.com has a technology partnership with Starwave, which is controlled by Infoseek.) But the urge to merge died down in late summer after many Internet companies' valuations soared to levels that struck many suitors as too rich for their blood. An AOL/Netscape deal, reportedly valued at more than $4 billion, could spur another round of Internet companies teaming up with offline counterparts, analysts say. Even though some Net stocks have recently surpassed their summer highs, many big companies may feel they have to get into the Internet industry at any cost. That notion sent Net stocks soaring Monday. In addition to AOL and Netscape jumping 5% and 7%, respectively, Yahoo! (YHOO:Nasdaq) gained 16% to a new high of 221 1/2; Lycos (LCOS:Nasdaq) gained 7% to 65; CNET gained 4% to 2 5/16; GeoCities (GCTY:Nasdaq) rose 10% to 42 3/4 and CMG Information Services (CMGI:Nasdaq), an investor in Lycos, GeoCities and other Internet kindred, jumped 11% to 86 1/4. (Flatiron Partners, a minority shareholder in TheStreet.com, is also an investor in GeoCities.) "I would expect a whole new round of consolidation," said Michael Wallace, an analyst at Warburg Dillon Read. More acquisitions would up the ante for the caliber of companies out there fighting for the attention of users, he said. Warburg, which has no underwriting relationship with AOL or Netscape, rates both stocks a strong buy. "Buying a smaller portal can give [the bigger companies] this synergy immediately," says Emmy Sobieski, portfolio manager and tech specialist for Nicholas Applegate. That makes smaller portals attractive acquisition candidates, as Wired Ventures and its Hotbot search engine were to Lycos. With a combined AOL/Netscape, it will be harder for a smaller portal to stay in the game. According to Media Metrix, AOL.com was visited by 45.2% of people on the Net in October, second only to Yahoo's 47% reach. Netscape held fourth place with a 33.4% combined reach October numbers. But combining AOL and Netscape would create a company with a 58% reach, a healthy margin over Yahoo, according to numbers from Relevant Knowledge. And the target audiences of the two complement each other. AOL's members log on more frequently from home, while Netscape's site is targeted toward business users. Merging the two would also "give the company a solid Web strategy for customers not interested in the 'kinder/gentler' AOL environment," said CS First Boston analyst Lise Buyer in a research note. The company has no underwriting relationship with AOL or Netscape. So who's next? Virginia Stuart, an analyst for Scudder Kemper Investments, said it could very well be Lycos. "Infoseek's got Disney, why wouldn't Lycos would want a big media partner?" she asked. And Lycos is already working with Bertelsmann. "Time Warner (TWX:NYSE) may start to get into this area too," Stuart says. "They have to because these [Internet companies] are the new media companies. These companies have tremendous value, direction, marketing, advertising and real estate." And here's what it means for the stocks of these Internet companies: "Expect more frenzy," Stuart says. "These deals just show people that there is huge value in these companies. They have brand names and add value to companies. Traffic is important and content is important."