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Strategies & Market Trends : Waiting for the big Kahuna -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Haim R. Branisteanu who wrote (34182)	11/23/1998 9:06:00 AM
From: donald sew	Respond to of 94695

Haim, >>>>>>>> This week BW article about China and today's WSJ piece about China makes me wonder were the common wisdom of all those fund manager is. <<<<<<<<<< I have been strongly cynical towards the fund managers and analysts. I believe they know what they are doing, but does not want to let the public know. It is hard for me to believe that some of their internal analysts are not expressing caution even for the long term. But they dont make money if the average investor starts pulling out their funds so they need to paint as rosey of a picture as possible. Of course they also have internal analysts saying much higher. So lets say the bearish and bullish sentiments, within a specific investment firm, are equal, with equally logical arguements - in other words they are also on the fence and not sure. Well, what do they tell the public - I feel the normal advice to the public takes the side of the rosey picture, even thought internally they are not really sure. How many times have we heard an analyst say - Im not sure. That reminds me of good old Ralph. He was correct for changing his position, but to make complete reversal in a day - come on, like he had no clue the day before. I guess they believe that the public would have less confidence in them if they stated that they were unsure - so what they do is actually mislead the public by only giving the rosey pictures without expressing their own concerns. Hope I made some sense. seeya

To: Haim R. Branisteanu who wrote (34182)	11/23/1998 2:16:00 PM
From: Chip McVickar	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 94695

Haim, Here is the latest from The Skeptical Investor November: chebucto.ns.ca October: chebucto.ns.ca . Moseley is working on a scenario that factors International Currency Deflation as the major stumbling block to stable financial conditions. You maybe looking at exactly the right information. But it may take longer then expected....there is no reason why these markets cannot continue rising well into 1999 with only modest pull backs on earnings...? It's all in the money flow. So far the current "floating rate system" anchored by the dollar appears consistantly fixable and sustainable. That basic perception will have to be altered before what you are looking for occurs. The inchoate stability that the markets are perceiving has been managed very well by Greenspan and his international partners. They have been doing so for years....atleast since Greenspan took office. Indonesia appeared in control....but that was not true. Japan appears in control of their problem...but that is not true. Worlds debt loads appear managable...but that is not true. The question remains....the bubble has been contained with some excellant moves, but....How can the Leverage Debt within Bond structures, world currencies and other debt vehicles be unwound without ending in a collapse of currency values..? Greenspan is buying time. Thanks for your work and posts. Chip