To: Original Mad Dog who wrote (15413 ) 11/23/1998 5:08:00 PM From: Randy Ellingson Respond to of 27307
*OT*Given that YHOO is valued at 4x/user more than AOL even though AOL's users are all different people (no pseudonyms) in possession of credit cards and YHOO's are not (lots of pseudonyms, some multiple, and no credit card needed), I am interested to know how YAHOO will overtake AOL in market cap. Do you predict it will be: 1. AOL's market cap declines 2. YHOO's per user premium increases 3. YHOO's user base expands dramatically more quickly Or something else? *If* Yahoo does overtake AOL's market cap, my guess is it wil be due primarily to 'something else', and likely not to #1 above. I don't see any reason for AOL's market cap to decline due to anything business-related. They can deliver their content to their customers via TCPIP, so even if/as they lose direct-dial customers to cable or similar high-speed access, they'll still have many paying customers. Actually, what is the thinking here, as far as AOL's maintaining/growing a paying customer base as alternate access to the Internet rolls out? Will AOL lease lines to offer access? That is one key aspect of their current service -- they are also the ISP. As for Yahoo's per-user premium, I think we'll see this increase, perhaps markedly. I don't know AOL's business as well as I should, but it seems that Yahoo may be better positioned for international marketing agreements since access to their sites is free -- that may ultimately bring more users. Yahoo can integrate content more easily since they are html (this may change as AOL converts -- will they?). What currently is AOL's main strength (IMO), that they cater to someone who wants it all to be 'easy', could become slightly less critical as PC and Internet technology make it easier to start, navigate, get email, etc. Yahoo is part of that movement. Yahoo's user base... I suppose it could expand dramatically more quickly, but more likely just 'faster'. I don't know Yahoo's business that wel either (!); myself, I find I use their quote.yahoo.com all the time (and have found nothing better -- their site is simple, fast to load, and very functional), their mapping and yellow pages, etc. But certainly I do not use it for 'everything' or even close to it. My understanding is that Yahoo has services and content such that many people use just one or a few aspects of their site. But if these services are the best, or have hooked users, then that gives Yahoo an attentive base from which to expand the customers' viewing time. Yahoo has the luxury of a little time to strengthen the familiarity of users with other content. FWIW, I am an AOL customer, indirectly. I do the web site for the Denver Summer Ultimate League, and decided to sign up for AOL's BYOA plan ($9.95 per month) to serve the site:members.aol.com I chose this because iwas the cheapest way I knew of the serve a site with a reliable and likely permanent vendor. I wonder if AOL users find themselves migrating to the web more and away from AOL's content somewhat...? I didn't compare AOL and Yahoo so well, but those ae some thoughts. What do you think?