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Strategies & Market Trends : Tech Stock Options -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: donald sew who wrote (57979)	11/23/1998 2:07:00 PM
From: Margaret Mateer	Read Replies (3) \| Respond to of 58727

110 new highs at 2:00 on high volume, too - Anyone nervous?

To: donald sew who wrote (57979)	11/23/1998 2:32:00 PM
From: Margaret Mateer	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 58727

Mark Leibovit is a good read - here's his latest: [ TAC ][ Home ][ Daily Charts ][ Weekly Charts ][ Historical Charts ][ Chart Spotlite ][ TA Course ] [ Glossary ][ Decision Point ALERT ][ Fidelity SELECTOR ][ InGROUP Tracker ][ Rydex TIMER ] 11/23/98 VOLUME REVERSAL SURVEY By Mark Leibovit The stock market still looks great. We've come a long way since my October 9 "buy signal" for index and mutual fund timers, but there is, as yet, no compelling reason to sell. The October 9 buy signal was a great call, but a lot of credit should be given to my Annual Forecast Model (AFM) which since 1998 was telling us that early October could be the launching pad for a huge year-end rally. Contrary opinion also had a lot to due with it. On October 8, a notable market analyst was being quoted on national financial television as predicting a further decline in the Dow Industrials to 6700. In addition, we were coming off a perfect 'double-bottom' formation in the Dow Industrials at 7400. And, October 8 was a day that over 1 billion shares were trades, a good sign NYSE Specialists were accumulating shares by the truckload. Anyway, that's all in the past. As the expression goes: "What have you done for me lately?" Volume has been increasing to the upside as the blue-chips have been rallying. I can say with a relative degree of confidence that a move in the Dow Industrials to or through 10,000 is highly probably in the next couple of months. Leadership in the high-techs has been superb as witnessed by a series of new record highs in the Nasdaq 100 index. Meanwhile back at the ranch, economists have been calling for a recession next year, apprehension over whether the U.S. will bomb the living daylights out of Iraq continues to surface, concern for Far Eastern economies (especially Japan) relentlessly receives press and the fear that the world will end due to the computer problem known as Y2K is becoming more and more talked about. The volatility of the market this past year has been extraordinary. Not only have we just experienced the largest bull market rally since 1982 (soon to be surpassed), but we just came off of one of the nastiest corrections (bear markets) in quite some time that lasted between February of this year and early October. Some say the bear market was worse than the Crash in 1987 or the 1973-74 bear market for a variety of reasons, not all of which I agree with. All of this in one year! Can it happen again? Could 1999 see similar volatility in both directions? Sure it can. But, for now we are enjoying a super upmove in the market. As I've said before, let the market tell when it ready to decline. Let's not guess about. Let's not loose sleep over it. When it comes it comes! Very short-term, it appears the market can move higher early this week, but encounters a cyclical 'change point' on Wednesday. Ideally, the market rallies into Wednesday and then pulls back. If a pull back unfolds first, use Wednesday as a buy point. A new trading objective in the OEX (S&P 100) was formed in my work on Friday pointing toward 584.00. Volume started to appear to the upside in the oils and oil service stocks on Friday. Several Positive Volume Reversals (tm) were generated. Because there have so many false stocks in this group, I prefer to wait and watch before recommending purchase. Sepracor (SEPR) targets to the high 80s, Federal Express (FDX) into the mid 60s, PSI Net (PSIX) into the low 20s and Agouran Pharmaceutical (AGPH) into the low 50s, just to mention a few many names. Stay with the indexes. My favorite, of course, is the Dow Jones Diamonds (DIA). The bond market is starting to look better. A Positive Volume Reversal (tm) was formed last Wednesday and bonds have ticked up slightly since. Further followthrough on volume would lead me to believe that a retest of recent highs is possible. In this scenario you do not (do not) want to see recent lows broken. If so, the positive is negated. Gold shares bounced a bit last week, but so far unconvincingly. Though I remain quite positive on gold shares on a longer term basis (1 year or more), we have definitely run into a wall as far as making further upside progress. A breakout above 87.53 would be the first step in reasserting the uptrend (next target 98.00), but I think gold itself needs to participate with conviction next time around, otherwise the rally may be doomed. Mark Leibovit VRS