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Strategies & Market Trends : Point and Figure Charting -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Tigress who wrote (10089)	11/23/1998 5:36:00 PM
From: Al Serrao	Respond to of 34810

Tiger, lots of issues here. I encourage you to go slow and learn as much as you can from some the greats on this site and Tom Dorsey. Many are traders, others long term investors. Stick to NYSEBP as to timing and to specific charts from DWA regarding your funds. If you haven't read Tom's book get a copy. Its the best and easy to read. There is a real case for SC outperforming for years to come. However their moves will go with market. So if the market moves in either direction, you can generally expect the SC's to have a greater move. They have a higher beta. They are risker but since they have lagged for so long, have little exposure to foreign markets, and have higher growth rates than LC's it about time for them to shine. Keep in mind this has been talked about for years only for rallies to fail.Follow the NYSEBP. It will keep you out of trouble. Currently the NYSEBP is not in overbought territory @ 58%. Start to worry when this % exceeds 60-70% It can reverse down at any time from any reading.The hardest thing to do is just follow it don't try to out guess it. Junk bond funds are not for everyone. First you must decide what % you will keep in equity and how much in fixed income. Right now Hi-Yield represents an opportunity and I feel very comfortable with allocating 25% of the income side of my portfolio to this asset class. As to yields, 11% paid monthly plus possible appreciation of another 10-15% sound pretty good to me for the income side of anyone's portfolio. The LB is at 5.25% and expected to go to 4% in another year. Inflation at 1.5%, Junk is providing a real yield of 9.5% and almost 600 basis pints higher than the LB. The risk is you don't want to be holding this paper into a recession for reasons discussed in my post to Duke60. Hope this helps.