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Strategies & Market Trends : Roger's 1998 Short Picks -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: space cadet who wrote (15708)	11/24/1998 2:34:00 PM
From: Joey Two-Cents	Respond to of 18691

I got out of all my banking puts in late August, made a nice profit. I then got greedy and ended up buying some puts on WMT, GE and INTC in September. I'm playing against the clock, and with 14 months left there are many things on the horizon that I think will rattle the market. JPM projects growth in Brazil at -4.3% next year with the govt trying to get rates down to 20% from 35%. Inflation/Deflation in Brazil is projected to be 0%, and they owe $ 700B. China is continuing to building up inventories but is afraid to close plants because of social unrest and riots if they do. Japanese banks are asking for govt funds to bail them out of bad investments. Russia owes $ 200B which banks have not written off even though they have little chance of seeing any money, not to mention Yelstin impending death. UK economy is slowing to recession. And I don't know how those $80 trillion in derrivatives play in the picture but LTCM and 3 rate cuts illustrate the delicate balance of the markets. And then we have Y2K and $ 20 trillion in currency moved daily. According to all reports more than 1/2 the countries have not done anything yet. I wonder how commerce will be affected and if the $ 200B the Fed is printing will be enough to supply a world who has more confidence in the US $ then their own banks. If I had more money, I'd buy some JPM puts. 1999 should be very interesting.