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Strategies & Market Trends : Tech Stock Options -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: BILL G. WRIGHT who wrote (57993)	11/23/1998 7:36:00 PM
From: Margaret Mateer	Respond to of 58727

Hi Bill, I think that was Ralph Acampora of Prudential who actually is a pretty decent analyst who got a little whipsawed - to his credit he did change his mind shortly thereafter...it's been a rough year on analysts! (g) I respect Jerry Favors and his work but, GOOD GRIEF, his latest update is just the worst ever - Jerry Favors Analysis - Monday, November 23, 1998 8 p.m. Last evening we told you that we believed the Dow was going still higher this week and that we would probably see new highs in the Dow. We gave you a projection calling for 9325 plus or minus 192 points intraday. At the highs today the Dow was up 214.27 points,at 9374.27,a new closing high . For the last few months we have stated that there would be an extremely strong rally from October 28 plus or minus 2 days into November 25 plus or minus 2 days. The biggest mistake we made was not telling you specifically to go long on October 28,when the last short term low was reached. The market did not reach true oversold territory in that time frame so we decided to wait a few days before giving a Buy Signal. In this business the phrase "He who hesitates is lost" is all too often true. It was certainly true in this case.Our Cycles and the Bradley said to go long in that time frame and we should have followed them. Sometimes the hardest part of this business is to believe what your indicators are saying. In any case the Cycles and the Bradley were both absolutely correct,and the Dow has rallied 1045 points from the October 28 print low. We told you the rally would last from October 28 to at least November 25 plus or or minus 2 days. We are in that time frame now.We believe the Dow will see some sort of high in this time frame. WE do not believe that high has been seen quite yet. The current Top to Top Count suggests the earliest a top could be seen is November 24 and the latest a top could be seen is December 4. The Cycles call for a high near November 25 plus or minus 2 days and the Bradley calls for a high near November 24 plus or minus 2 days. One reason we suspect a potential high tomorrow is because of the pattern we have discussed numerous times before of the Dow reaching some sort of high or low within 2 trading days of each options expiration,and the last expiration was Friday November 20. So we must watch Tuesday's action very closely. The Bradley called for a low near October 28 and a high near November 24 plus or minus 2 trading days.The Cycles suggest the high could be be delayed aliitle longer into November 25 plus or minus 2 days. The Top to Top Count suggests the final high could be delayed until December 4,at the latest. Our concentration,as we have said for several months,was for a top near November 25 plus or minus 2 days. We are going to continue to use that time frame as our target for the next top. When the indicators suggest a top is in we will then tell you to go short. Stocks traders will go short,mutual fund switchers will go long the Rydex Ursa Fund,and short term traders will go long puts on the OEX.Let's just not jump the gun.Wait for an official signal.