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To: Tony Viola who wrote (69033)	11/23/1998 10:14:00 PM
From: John Koligman	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 186894

In addition to the hardware, the OS is just as (if not more) important. How long will it take Microsoft to get NT as stable and with the RAS of MVS, not to mention scalability.... John With the next question being - when will the average Fortune 500 CIO bet his job, and company, on it...

To: Tony Viola who wrote (69033)	11/24/1998 12:16:00 AM
From: Mary Cluney	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 186894

Tony,>>>Not sure if we had a bet about the demise of 390, but it was probably for a checkpoint of yr 2000 or was it 1999 <g>).<<< If I were CEO of the United States, I might try to weasel my way out of this by first questioning when the millenium officially begins - in the year 2000 or in the year 2001. Then I would say that it depends on how you define the word demise and exactly what the series 390 actually encompassed. But, no matter how I try to spin this thing, I would have to say that the mainframe is not going away anytime soon. Even after IBM announces (if they ever do) that they will stop manufacturing a mainframe computer - they would still get a minimum of 30% of mainframe revenues from maintaining and servicing the existing 390's that would still be in operation for years to come after that. Therefore, there is a great deal of job security for the many technical dinosaurs that are still out their plying their trade. Having said that, I think the IBM mainframe is only replacing existing but less powerful and outdated mainframes (probably no more than 5000 will be sold). You would find these mainframes in smoke stack industries (auto, steel, and other heavy manufacturing) and very large but mature industries (rail, shipping, air transport, and financial services). I doubt they would install mainframes in the more modern companies like Intel, Microsoft, Dell, AOL, Yahoo, research laboratories, universities, and hi-tech computing centers. I think that over time (within five years) client server (IA64) computing will be just as expensive (per MIP) as the mainframes and will surpass not only in the number of servers installed in the high end but also in total dollar value of servers installed in those markets. Am I just rambling - do I make any sense? Regards, Mary