To: wmwmw who wrote (21619 ) 11/24/1998 4:03:00 AM From: IQBAL LATIF Read Replies (3) | Respond to
Wang-- I am known to write long posts and I like to think that my whole trading career is based on reads of the market from a very basic point of view that is macro economic fundamentals I try to interpolate those fundamentals on my levels and for it has been magic, I think if you really think of it the market was priced for lock outs the world was suppose come to an end as SI bears thought it would. innovative society of today is a branded society and world top line revenue is becoming a hostage of few top line companies either you are one of them or are a secondry producer, US happens to be at the cutting edge of this technoligical prodcutivity which we are wittnessin, markets for me are manifestation of that great dream envisioned by the founding fathers. I think markets are based on productivity which has confounded the most serious of US critics, marekts are based on US advantage in technology the affects of this advantage are not fully priced in the market and market runs on the economic growth and prosperity which comes from the global trade which has been given a tremendous boast, the US audience today is no more US alone it is the citizens of the world, the US corporations like INTC MSFT MACDONALDS are not about Seattle or Bronxville they have a global audience. People were shamelessly tauting IBM as a short at 164 it is icon of that great research and vevelopment which has become forte of this company.. I am ready to pay a premium to own a share of first class company because either you have it at that price or be with a company which has no growth but a multiple of 12 only, PEG and compounding are two phenomenon which are moving these markets like Warren Buffets classic approach, when production and capacity utilisation and interest rate picture combines to give a buy and long money sees no signs of inflation the savings of the world looking for more appreciation than mere 3% in banking accounts become preapred to take a higher risks, it is the discounting of higher risks of financial assets that leads to a classic bull run whaich is a hall mark of this greart market, in this run we will see a lot of action on both sides excesses are commitied on down side when MSFT was at 80 last month and if it goes to 150- but in between level headed investors keep their presence, I don't maintain cash becasuse time and time again love with cash leads to freezing reflexes you just don't act- you are frozen to death- if you cannot make your mind to enter at 1320 when DELL sold for 41 than one needs to know that he has failed to understand the fundamnetals which derive this market- the world liquidity crunch once confidence factor is restored thru my own channels of hedge funds will put a lot more money to owrk in secondary bonds langusihing right now- for me sometime caution has to be given way- with macro economic fundmentals so strong and market being prized for deflation this is a natural outcome of that bull revenge... PE ratios are deceptive and it is the way you look at them, I am not ready to buy a 10 p/e company without growth but will pay 30 p/e for a company which as a growth of 30%-- ofcourse Internets and some other stocks have gone crazy but that is not going to take away the fact that MER CCI are still 20% off the highs.. Yranportation still may run.. so their is bound to happen a distribution I will like you have seen is an opportunist trader for me this is the time to buy some puts on most speculative issues and keep averaging you will see your level- on the other hand I will like trading p[ositions to be taken out below 1520 to be renetered at 1455 or 1398 level- as the case may be- but I will let my core run until market tells me otherwise, I don't think that was advice in currency on SI- they missed they are pissed and they hate being told so that you missed one of the finest runs in the history of this market-
