To: Technologyguy who wrote (270 ) 11/24/1998 2:40:00 AM From: Dan Spillane Respond to of 522
0K I have a few things to say about "those Internet stocks." So, why should the bubble pop? (Sounds like a good article for me to write.) 1) The success of the Internet is based on increasingly lower barriers to entry, which allows more and more businesses easy access to sell goods. The stock prices of companies such as Amazon and others are based on exactly the opposite of the fact (the assumption is that the first companies to sell goods on the net will prevail forever, this is false). Quite the opposite, as it becomes easier and easier to access the Internet, every business and their brother will be on it, and Amazon soon won't have any more advantage than any other bookseller. It only follows that Amazon deserves a market cap in line with Barnes and Noble, not the ridiculous one it has. 2) And as for Yahoo and the others...why is someone's computer database program running on a few PCs worth 20 billion? I mean, there is nothing special about this, and indeed several programmers with a small amount of capital could duplicate a Yahoo in a few months time in their own home. The hold on the market that Yahoo has is tenuous, at best. In fact, "push" or broadcast technology presents a serious challenge to Yahoo's only revenue source (advertising). It could be argued, however, that Yahoo might deserve a market cap in line with The New York Times, Chicago Tribune, or some popular magazine company...although Yahoo doesn't have the staff, book value, etc. But hey, what do I know? Oh by the way I predicted something called "The World-Wide Meta-network" years before the "World-Wide Web" was coined. Pretty ridiculous bubble.