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Pastimes : J Doe #13 Off-topic Non-Specific Tech Stock Ponderings -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?


To: Charlie Finley who wrote (1254)11/23/1998 11:43:00 PM
From: Johnathan C. Doe  Read Replies (1) | Respond to of 1819
 
Hey buddy; what a day in the market; it's nuts. So many things moving. Yahoo; Netscape; etc. I've been in such a bottom fishing mode and now I just don't have the mindset to switch gears to a new strategy. I just don't know how to play this latest move. We are going to be rallying for some time; that is for sure.

Lessons: October predicted to be the month for the big crashes turned in the best one month performance in history? The market loves to set people up with this type of pattern thinking. The market is never predictable like that. I generally like playing a contrarian play and this was a great example of it.

The trouble is that I have gotten out of all my plays and the market is still rocketing and here I am out of everything. I don't feel comfortable getting back in at these levels either. As soon as they start talking about this being a sky's the limit situation, you can be sure the rug is getting ready to be pulled.

I figure the best thing to do is just sit on the sidelines and wait. My strategy is that you only have to play the market a few times a year at most and can sit out all the rest and still make huge returns. So far, I got in too early and spent 6 months getting the last returns. Now I might have to wait 6 months just to get back in. Not very exciting.



To: Charlie Finley who wrote (1254)11/30/1998 2:10:00 AM
From: Johnathan C. Doe  Read Replies (1) | Respond to of 1819
 
The stock market has just been phenomenal. Looking over the way the internet stocks have played out; it is just amazing! I'm missing most of this myself; who would have guessed. I figured that bargins were bargins, but I never thought returns would ever come this quick on those bargins. The only thing that I have to go on is that in the past, bargins only lasted a short while and then were grabbed up; no matter what the market sentiment at the time. This has been far different; a complete bouncing back of the market with hard momentum that is really nothing short of stunning. It was the lowering of interest rates that sparked it off, but there was a good argument to be made that they were getting lowered because of real problems. Now all the spin is that everything is better; Asia is coming back; etc. this is how it all goes with sentiment shifts. The market is really a bizarre psychology. Great trading opportunities in all the volatility; I think we will see the volatility continue. We have moved up too fast and this will blow off at some point. The amount of just straight up specualative money in the market is very odd. Some great shorts are getting set up, but I wouldn't touch anything right now. This could last for weeks longer.