To: Andrew Fenic who wrote (15478 ) 11/23/1998 10:33:00 PM From: Original Mad Dog Read Replies (1) | Respond to of 27307
I agree that the pattern looks the same. But the danger of technical analysis and historical patterns is that they are a lot easier to see after the fact. Other stocks have shot through the roof -- though most didn't do it THIS fast -- and then settled down without crashing. And Iomega as a COMPANY is not a good parallel to Yahoo; it was a one-horse show in a field crowded (and soon to become more crowded) with alternatives. When the Zip Drive came out, it was the best new thing, but you had to realize that it wouldn't remain so. Yahoo's valuation, much as I disagree with it on an analytical level, is likely driven by a belief that Yahoo is riding the crest of a revolution. The early adherents to revolutionary concepts are virtually always thought of as scary. On a technical level, I also think this is being driven by the emergence of Internet trading; on a day-to-day basis, a large percentage of trades are being done on PC's by people who have already discovered the Internet's potential. Maybe they're right and everyone else is about to discover it too, although I think that will be a slower process than most of us think, particularly for the less educated who have been conditioned by a half-century of televised drivel. But if the revolutionaries are right, then $21 billion is not going to seem like all that much in the long run, after a short term correction which at this point seems inevitable. If they're wrong, then people are going to wonder why anyone ever thought this was worth more than most of the major airlines combined on revenues of under $200 million a year. MAD DOG