To: Trader J who wrote (15389 ) 11/23/1998 11:43:00 PM From: ayahuasca Respond to of 119973
Thinking about the market... I am primarily invested in internet stocks and they form the basis of my outlook, although I think it can be easily extrapolated to the rest of the market. When I see things like EBAY going up 44 points, YHOO up 30 some odd points, AMZn up 35 points etc my mouth is agape. It looks alot like the peaks of a big upward move. People are thinking about nothing but huge gains. 6 weeks ago many would have been happy if a stock was up 2 points. Now 2 points looks like a loss compared to 44, 35, 30, 12 etc. IT's getting a bit frothy out there and there has got to be a pullback at some point. The valuations of these companies, while essentially deemed irrelevent by the market, are just getting to be fantastical. On the other hand, there are internet companies, primarily second and third tier, but also some leaders (DCLK comes to mind), that have not come close to their summer highs. In light of the recent runs of some internet companies it would be justifiable to expect solid companies like ONSL, DCLK, SEEK, GNET to have their own runups. Will this happen before everything settles down a bit? No idea, but I am invested in some of those companies so I hope so. If they dont have their runups will these companies fall just as hard as those that have reached nosebleed levels? Who knows. Also, one thing that is driving the internet sector at the moment is the anticipation of Holiday sales online. The main shopping season doesnt even begin until this weekend. It seems plausible that the excitement in this alone could buouy the ecommerce stocks for several weeks at least. (and I am betting on NM in this regard). Also, the IPO's such as UBID could prolong the speculative frenzy a bit longer (benefitting companies such as MALL which I also am betting on). My guess, is that we will see the market go up marginally for the rest of the week, perhaps a little longer. But soon we will have a correction and with the internets it could be potentially severe. At least initially. I then think we will rally through the end of the year with stocks trading close to if not above where they are now. One thing is certain I will be treadin carefully! Especially since I cant watch my portfolio all day (work and all).