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Strategies & Market Trends : Waiting for the big Kahuna -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Bull RidaH who wrote (34266)	11/24/1998 12:28:00 AM
From: donald sew	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 94695

David, My analysis limits my projection for the short-term and is not designed to call the big move. Seeya >>>>> INDEX UPDATE ======================== My short-term technicals are giving a CLASS 1 SELL signal across the board, with the buy-in time set at tomorrows highs, and for the dip to start the following day(WED). During the strong runup in the spring, whenever I got this type of SELL signal they all worked but the dip was as small as 75 DOW points on a intraday basis only, and the average was around 100-200 range. Not that strong of a pullback. I am also suspecting that this SELL signal could be delayed a day, regardless we should start to see some sort of a dip within 3 trading days. Today, the NEW HIGHs got above 100, and unless there is a complete reversal tomorrow, such will reduce the probability of a significant pullback of 5% or more. Previously, I had mentioned that if the NEW HIGHs were to stay under 100 and NEW LOWS in the 10-50 ramge then the following month should see a 5%+ pullback. There will still be a pullback and it should start as early as tomorrow or WED, but this pullback could be very small and only intraday. I would not suggest it for a position trade, but would be more suitable for daytraders. Technically, there is only confirmation of a very short-term TOP, but no technical confirmation yet of a mid-term TOP. For me to call a mid-term top (30 days), I need to see either a DOUBLE TOP FORMATION or a LOWER HIGH in the major indexes. If the forthcoming pullback is greater than 200-250 points, then there is a good chance for a mid-term TOP, but if we get a slight pullback of only 75-150 points the probability is that the market is heading higher. I have no idea the size of this forthcoming dip. Today closed with a large WHITE MAROZUBO (no shadows on the candlestick); therefore the probability is that tomorrow will not be a huge up day like today. The intraday upside could be limited to less than 100 points, closer to the 50-75 range. On the other hand and on a subjective basis, the market did set a new high today, so we could see some manic buying tomorrow. During the forthcoming dip, I will be watching the market internals carefully to see if there is any hint of future move. For example if the the NEW HIGHS and the ADVANCE/DECLINE remains strong during the dip, the market will probably head higher and the dip should be minimal. The BKX today was strong and did set a higher high which is a sign of further strength. The RUT, XAL, TRAN, FPP lagged the DOW today and still have only rebounded 50% of their losses or less, so they could still be in a bearish mode unless they start to catch up with the DOW/SPX/NAZ. The question concerning these indexes are whether they are leading indicators of future weakness, or are they lagging/unimportant indicators. Only time will tell. For the DOW theorists the TRAN needs to catch up or it is a negative indicator. Although this rally has been fast, I am not convinced that we are heading alot higher (9600-10000 by the end of the year) as more and more are expecting. The forthcoming dip should give a clue. <<<<<<<<<<

To: Bull RidaH who wrote (34266)	11/24/1998 3:38:00 AM
From: Death Sphincter	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 94695

David.....news release from Chicago Merc. Exchange says that glue demand has been so high that there has been a run on inventory.....glue pit has futures limit up tonight.....rumors circulating that shortage is causing hoarding and market is now SMOKING GLUE in order to stretch supply!! speculators believe there may be enough left for 1 big GLUE BONG and a run to 9500, but market health officials fear a black market, run by Asian banking criminals, is smuggling rat snot into the country and passing it off as glue. WARNING TO ANYONE READING THIS.....DON'T SMOKE THE RAT SNOT!!!! remember what happened in the 'farmer in the dell'? that's right! they all got naked with a kitchen knife! careful, its a jungle out there Mo, Larry and Curly