To: Gerald R. Lampton who wrote (21718 ) 11/24/1998 11:19:00 AM From: Charles Hughes Read Replies (1) | Respond to of 24154
>>> It's not lame, since, in my personal view, it is the only real hope Microsoft will have of winning this case after they lose on the factual issue <<< Leaning on a rickety crutch doesn't make the case that MSFTs defense in this particular is not lame. >>> (a) An antitrust policy that cares at all about efficiency and consumer welfare will not break up a natural monopoly, since to do so would result in a decrease in consumer welfare and efficiency. Totally unproven. First of all, there are no real world examples of this having happened, are there? Second, natural monopolies benefit the customer only to the point where the monopoly becomes encompassing, at which point prices are raised to what the market can bear, and usually immediately. One sees this with Windows pricing already. Unless, of course, you have regulation to hold down prices, as with the utility companies, bus companies, cable companies, and so forth. >>> the government must prove that the monopolist is using predatory conduct to maintain market power I think they have done that, if it were not already obvious to everyone in the business. >>> since elimination of the source of the monopolist's market power, i.e., the predatory conduct, should cause the market to revert to its natural, multi-firm, competitive state. <<< Unproven and probably wrong, IMO. Once a company has been allowed to destroy an industry it might be very hard to create a dynamic industry again, and it may require subsidies, protection, and so forth. The infrastructure, the trained workers, the investor interest, the international competitive position all are damaged. For the following I just add different emphasis than you did: >>> The important point is that the market should not be prevented by Microsoft's anticompetitive practices from making that decision. >>>The government may be able to argue that Microsoft used predatory conduct to get the network effects going in the browser market, Perhaps we should remember that this case is also about Apple and OS2, and other issues, not just about browsers. Especially since the appeals court rejected most of that, the DOJ is mostly leaning on other behaviour. Finally, I think you should review again the notion that an OS is a natural monopoly. All one needs to do to demolish this notion is to note that adherence to a regularly updated set of minimum standards for interfaces could be mandated. This is in fact how the various flavors of Linux are created and coordinated from different vendors. Also, both OS2 and SoftWindows have been able to run Windows programs in the past, and the only thing making that really inconvenient was MSFT's (understandable) lack of cooperation. If that cooperation on the API and debugging were mandated, and Windows compatibility licensed at a reasonable price, there would be a competitive market for Windows compatibility . And MSFT could still be paid fees in line with their actual investment, or even much more. You probably would see Windows compatibility available via Linux at a good price. With all of Linux still available concurrently. Ditto on Sun and Apple. This is like what DRDOS did for you. With remedies like these so easily available (we know they work) you can hardly say the OS is a natural monopoly. Nevertheless, manipulation can cause a network effect that overcomes competition more than would have naturally happened. Cheers, Chaz