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Technology Stocks : Dell Technologies Inc. -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: JRI who wrote (82074)	11/24/1998 9:24:00 AM
From: Mohan Marette	Respond to of 176387

Goldman Sachs on DELL. john: All I know is this,I don't know what Larry is talking about since I haven't seen it. 11/13/98 Goldman Sachs reiterates recommended list buy, raised 1998 from $1.03 to $1.05, 1999 from $1.28 to $1.38 PS:I think the 1998 estimate could be for fiscal 99 and 1999 for fiscal 00.

To: JRI who wrote (82074)	11/25/1998 3:09:00 PM
From: Gabriel008	Read Replies (2) \| Respond to of 176387

John, belated Q3 post-mortem analysis for DELL. Unit sales volume: 2100 est vs 2008 actual. The 2008 represents 11.2% sequential growth for a period that has typically generated much higher growth. The culprit - Europe - with 0% sequential growth in Q3. Interestingly enough, Europe had 0% sequential growth in the same period last year but had close to 75% sequential growth the following quarter. No reason not to expect this same kind of performance in Europe for Q4. China & South America could also provide an extra boost to DELL's Q4. In a nutshell the IDC data has proven to be right on. Forget the 1 month difference in reporting - IDC seems to have resolved this issue. Dataquest, on the other hand, is becoming increasingly irrelevant since they don't measure server sales. With the advent of storage in DELL's product mix we will need to determine this product line's impact on DELL's quarterly numbers. ASP: I estimated a 1.5% sequential decline to $2364 and we actually came in at 0% decline [i.e.$2400]. I would think that the ASP may hold steady or even increase in Q4 due to product mix sales that are increasingly skewed towards workstations, portables, servers and storage. Revenue: $4.964b estimate vs. $4.818b actual representing a 11.2% sequential revenue increase. In comparison - Q3f97 was 19% and Q3f98 was 13%. Product Sales Mix: 79% for desktops - 8% sequential growth; 3% for servers - 17% sequential growth ; 18% for portables - 22% sequential growth. Geographic Sales Mix: 70% - Americas [17% sequential growth]; 24% - Europe [0% sequential growth]; 6% Asia & Japan [3% sequential growth]. Gross Profit: 22.7% estimate vs 22.5% actual. Slight erosion this quarter from Q2 but certainly not material. Average Weighted Shares: 1.381b average weighted shares vs 1.392b in Q2. This suggests that Q4 should be approximately 1.370b. Earnings per Share: $0.29 estimate vs $0.28 actual. Based on the analysis here's my current guess at Q4. Unit Sales Volume: 2.309m - 15% sequential growth ASP: $2400 - same as q3 Revenue:$5.542b 15% sequential growth Gross Margin: $1.247b - 22.5% Operating Expenses: $610m - 11.0% Net Profit after tax: $453m - 8.18% EPS: $0.33 Fiscal year 1999 results based on above Revenue: $18.612 b Earnings: $1.488b EPS: $1.07 [based on 1.394b average weighted shares for the year]