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Technology Stocks : AMD: A thread for real AMD investors not nit-picking twits -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Frank who wrote (93)	11/24/1998 12:08:00 PM
From: Brian Hutcheson	Respond to of 254

Frank , re. my figures Morgan Stanley estimates over 5M K6-2 plus I have heard a specific number higher than this . Analysts seem to be missing an important point they cite AMD's production as going from 2.7M to 3.8M K6s , what they forget is that of the 2.7M in Q2 consisted of 1M on .25 and 1.7M on .35 . In Q3 the 3.8M was entirely the .25 version , so the real growth on that process was from 1M to 3.8M for a 280% growth over 3 months . A jump from 3.8M to 5.2M is only 37% . The approx maximum output for Fab 25 is 4K wafers / week . So using an approximation of the maximum number of dies for K6-2 on an 8" wafer as 320 . A 60% yield on 4000 wafers would be 768K per week . Over 13 weeks than translates to 10M a quarter In other words 5M is only half of maximum production at 60% yield . As far as the ASP is concerned , in Q2 the ASP was $81 vs Q3's ASP of approx $100 . Do you not think that with the closing of the speed gap with Intel to one clock rate in the middle of Q4 and release of mobile K6-300 in September that AMD's blended ASP will not increase by 10% ? IMO that could be conservative . Also the SOX index has gone from under 200 to 315 in the last 6 weeks this is indicating that there is a turnaround in the semi business which as I pointed out in Sept is due in part to consumers and corporations replacing older non Y2K compliant equipment . Ed Yardeni calls this effect the Y2K technology boom . This along with an even more pronounced Xmas / end of year sales surge than normal will result in a pickup in other AMD's other business . regards , Brian