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Technology Stocks : Semi-Equips - Buy when BLOOD is running in the streets! -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Q. who wrote (7352)	11/24/1998 8:37:00 PM
From: Math Junkie	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 10921

Re: <<In other words, the market thinks that AMAT and its customers are the same thing. Which would be reasonable enough if the customers' capital spending were always a fixed percentage of their sales. That's obviously not true, but the market acts that way.>> So what else would you expect investors to use to evaluate AMAT's near-term future? Sure, capital spending is not a fixed percentage of sales, but it should not be a controversial concept to say that before equipment makers can do well, their customers must do well. One thing I think we need to realize about Wall Street is that stock prices are determined by information. Sure, there is a six months or longer time lag between semiconductor recovery and semiconductor equipment recovery, but as soon as the news about semiconductor sales is out, it's out, and Wall Street is going to respond to it now, not wait six months and then say, "Hey, it's been six months since semiconductor sales started up, let's buy some AMAT."