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Politics : Formerly About Applied Materials -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Ramsey Su who wrote (26679)	11/24/1998 1:50:00 PM
From: Katherine Derbyshire	Read Replies (3) \| Respond to of 70976

>>Short of the above, I am not sure what would rush the upgrades that the semi eq companies are hoping for, especially in any significant magnitude. Katherine, what do you think?<< For several months now I've been saying that a equipment revenue recovery isn't likely until mid-99. That's still my opinion. I also said about a month ago that the stocks had probably bottomed because the news isn't getting worse, but would probably experience some turbulence when earnings don't turn around immediately. That's also still my opinion. I hold the former opinion more strongly than the latter, since I don't follow the stock dynamics in the sector that closely. Re: investment strategies, my long term hold investments have recovered nearly all of their September-October losses. That includes a significant position in foreign equities, which was hammered even worse than the domestic stuff in the drop. My short-intermediate term trade investments are going up like rockets, but I'm being very wary with stops. My overall cash allocation is the same as it's always been. The market isn't rational; what I think should happen doesn't seem to matter much. I'd rather be rich than right. (But then I don't hold AMZN, so what do I know?) Katherine

To: Ramsey Su who wrote (26679)	11/24/1998 3:05:00 PM
From: manohar kanuri	Respond to of 70976

Morgan Stanley has a great global economic forum updated daily. ms.com; They are particularly good at currencies, imo. And one of those links is to Biggs - the one person who I thank for getting so many of my bets right. mano

To: Ramsey Su who wrote (26679)	11/24/1998 3:19:00 PM
From: blake_paterson	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 70976

Ramsey: OK, I'll try to keep them simpler so as to not overwhelm your thought process <VBG>. re: capex. Intel has already made it clear that they intend to decrease capex to ~ $2.5 billion this coming year (this down from $3.5 billion on actual equip purchases (after eliminating fab acqs/invests)). In order to accomplish this reduction while simultaneously increasing output (haven't you heard about all of the new chip shortages <g>?), they will recycle used equip and focus on die shrinks. That means that they will shift their spending focus to equip which facilitates 0.18, and any vendor w/ a leg up in this area will benefit. So there will be a redistribution of purchasing activity, away from the IPEC's of the world (why'ddya think they just sold out fer cheap?) to the 1000# gorillas (AMAT, KLAC) and a some choice smaller vendors w/ strategically important technology. Does that mean that the world has come to an end? Of course not. Intel, important as it is, is not the be all or end all for the semi-equip mfrs. The dynamics of the industry have certainly changed as has the flow of purchasing dollars, and that is where some investors win and some lose. Short enough for you? Regards and JMHO, BP