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Politics : Dutch Central Bank Sale Announcement Imminent? -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Crimson Ghost who wrote (2296)	11/24/1998 3:13:00 PM
From: Ahda	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 81085

Cohesive bunch arn't we. Asia is still in trouble but China's economy is growing. Competition? Saving grace could be y2k computer wise new systems. Ooops Inflation is already here my friends Stores are not crowded my friends Earnings are down my friends and we are all blue skies? I guess i am just thick headed or something.

To: Crimson Ghost who wrote (2296)	11/24/1998 3:31:00 PM
From: Jim McMannis	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 81085

George, RE:"I too see the market getting up to 10,000 or so in January provided we have a decent correction first. Possibly even 11,000 by spring. But after that I see a really big decline. Testing the 7400 low and maybe taking it out. Why? because by then fears of inflation and/or stagflation will be mounting, commodity prices will be up, and bond yields will be closer to 6% than 5%. And incidentially gold should be well above $300. Not to mention the year 2000 problem and astronomical valuations. "... --- Good to see someone else doesn't think the business/commodity cycle has been repealed. Well then, we don't disagree on much except maybe I see gold stocks starting to anticipate inflation a little sooner than most. As late market cyclicals they should start to move up by January. The real 64 dollar question is how far they wil move after the general market tops out. Depends on how many rate hikes the FED has to make to slow things down. Could be '79-80 where it takes a lot or '87 or '94 where gold stocks fell apart rather quickly after the FED really started to tighten. With AG in there I don't see the FED getting that far behind the curve...but if Asia has a miraculous turn around and our rates so low we are really a sitting duck for a wiff of inflation. Jim