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Strategies & Market Trends : Waiting for the big Kahuna -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Bull RidaH who wrote (34340)	11/24/1998 10:50:00 PM
From: Death Sphincter	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 94695

David.....of course you know i expect some rather nasty surprises to the down side, but not quite yet. here is my best guess: the final 5 wave up started Nov 11/12 wave 1 ended with peak on 17th wave 2 was low on 18th wave 3 ended this morning at high near open rest of today was ABC 4th wave 2 on 18th was SHARP zigzag....i have been waiting for a sideways wave 4 to alternate with wave 2, got it today there is a channel line drawn from the lows of the Sept rally, that the S&P keeps hitting its head on........the same channel line has not been hit by the DOW and projects to 9500-9600 for a 'head bump' i have bought puts when th S&P hit that line, so far to no avail, does the DOW have to hit it? don't know i expect the BIG down from here to start with a five waver and then bounce back up for a retest just as you do that 5 waver could not have started from the high early this morning because that high was exceeded around 1:45 and you know that 2 can not retrace to above the beginning of wave 1.......so this action fits very nicely as the wave 4 i've been looking for so if this is correct the finale wave 5 of 5 of 5 should take place starting tomorrow....could it truncate and end short of todays highs? certainly......could it be weak and whimpy and slightly nose above todays highs? certainly....could it go higher and have the DOW finally hit its head on the top of the channel and have the S&P 'throwover' that channel? certainly IF IT DROPS SHARPLY from here then we have started a corrective that began at this mornings high....it will be starting with an 'extended flat' (b was the double top this afternoon),.......I will be disappointed!! this will not be nearly as bearish as it would if it started with a 5 waver....will see the end is near, the truth will be known, the glue is drying up i am unduly influenced by the DAX, it looks really, really ugly, when it goes down for the next 5 who will be left standing? and when the truth comes out that there will be no 15%-20% earnings growth in the U.S..to support a multiple of 30? go bye-bye carl