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Strategies & Market Trends : Stock Attack -- A Complete Analysis -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: dennis michael patterson who wrote (17975)	11/24/1998 7:09:00 PM
From: dennis michael patterson	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 42787

Favors (I will be cancelling by Monday at the latest) Jerry Favors Analysis - Tuesday, November 24, 1998 8 p.m. First, because of the holiday this week there will be no 8 p.m. update Wednesday evening as usual. The next update will be Thursday evening, November 26 at 10 pm EST. At the highs today the Dow was up as much 5.93 at a new print high of 9380.20 and at the lows we were down as much as 85 points. We closed down 74.92. As you know our work called for a rally from October 28 plus or minus 2 day into November 25 plus or minus 2 days. This is the time frame in which some sort of high is due both from the Bradley and the Cycles. We have been calling for a rally into this time for the last couple of months. The question is whether the high due in this time frame has been seen? The Bradley,as you know,called for a rally from October 28 to November 24, plus or minus 2 days in each case.The Cycles called for a rally from October 28 to November 25 plus or minus 2 days, and we are still in that time frame. The Top to Top Count calls for the high between November 24 and December 4 at the latest. Here are 3 different techniques all calling for a high in this same time frame. However despite today's decline we are still in what is normally a seasonally strong time frame,that is the period just before and just after Thanksgiving. Today's decline was also not enough to prove the high due in this time frame has been seen. Any decline below today's lows tomorrow will signal some further decline.Today's print low in the Dow was 9289.05,but the intraday low will be more important.Any decline below 1184.20 in the December S&P futures will signal lower prices for the Dow tomorrow. We know the Investor's Intelligence bullish percentage suggests the Dow should be near some sort of high. We know the 3-Day Put/Call Ratio suggests we are near a high,at least short term. The Trin-5 also suggests some sort of high is near. Several of our indicators went on preliminary Sell Signals today. They were not enough to prove that a high has been seen but they do suggest that a high is close,if we have not seen one already. Any rally above 9381 on a print basis in the Dow tomorrow will be short term bullish and signal some further rally this week before the high.Any rally above 9315.31 on a print basis in the first hour of trading tomorrow will signal some further bounce or rally attempt but unless that rally exceeds 9381 lower prices will follow. The projection we gave you several days ago called for 9325 plus or minus 192 points intraday. That projection remains in force,so we cannot allow one negative day to cause us to jump too hastily to the bearish side. The 3-Day Chart could not turn down before Friday November 27. If it does turn down Friday it will give us more confidence that a high has been seen this week. While the Cycles and the Bradley call for a high in this time frame the wave structure suggests we could see a brief decline and then a final high in the first week of December. If so the Top To Top Count suggests that high should be seen by December 4 at the latest. It is our job to decide when to take you back to the short side.Today could have been that day but we are not 100% convinced. If the Dow rallies above 9381 we will take a 50% short position at 9476 with a stop of any close above 9644 in the Dow.Mutual Fund switchers should go long the Rydex Ursa Fund. If you are new to shorting we recommend shorting the Dow Diamonds,or some other Dow derivative. But do check with your broker to determine the best and safest vehicle for your type of trading. We will have more specific instructions on for you Thursday evening at 10 pm.