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Technology Stocks : Altaba Inc. (formerly Yahoo) -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: HG who wrote (15547)	11/24/1998 9:23:00 PM
From: Dave Mansfield	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 27307

>>A good starting point could be - what have we learned so far about YHOO thru the discussions held here ?<< Good question. The one thing I've learned is that the stock doesn't trade rationally. It appears it will continue to do so into the foreseeable future. Rationality will return but I don't know how or when. The how can come about in one of two ways. Either revenues and earnings grow at such a significant rate as to justify these wild valuations proving that the longs were right in their prospects for the company. Or the price gradually or suddenly declines to a level supported by the current and expected revenues and earnings. Could be that a combination of the two occur, a substantial improvement in fundamentals accompanied by a reduction in price, but I think it will be one or the other and my bet is on the bubble popping. The when is anybody's guess but I'll say probably next year, January or February at which time some of these fantastic gains can be delayed into the next year. Dave

To: HG who wrote (15547)	11/24/1998 10:02:00 PM
From: Original Mad Dog	Read Replies (2) \| Respond to of 27307

Not much time tonight. Ultimately, rationality is measured by results. In the end, measurements of what is rational usually involve using some variant of the scientific method. Controlled experiments, when you can design them, work best; in investing, it usually is just "you try it your way, I'll try it mine, and if in the relevant time frame your way works better, next time I'll try it your way." What I have learned about YHOO, and about investing in general, as a result of these discussions is that valuation models need to have more than simple ratios or historical perspective (although those are still important, for history does repeat itself). You also need to have a sense of the moment, about what is different this time. In looking at YHOO as a short term investment (which is all the evidence we have at the moment), it sure looks like the perspective you have been advocating has worked, this time. And yet, even your own posts today seem to imply that you may also have some uncertainty (dare I call it skepticism!) about YHOO's prospects for further stock appreciation in the medium-term (a few months) and maybe even the long term. Today you reported that you sold 1/3 of your position -- I assume that means either that you have doubts about YHOO's current valuation or that you believe the technical factors overwhelmingly point to a short-term correction (to be followed by a long-term increase in value). One more thing: did you say in one of your posts earlier today that a guru once told you to sell only if you believe the stock should be shorted? I would strongly argue that there is a middle ground. What do you think? MAD DOG

To: HG who wrote (15547)	11/25/1998 11:18:00 AM
From: Smart Investor	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 27307

I am repeatedly pointing out absurdity of YHOO's valuation just like you longs repeating the so called potential of YHOO. Therefore, I think we are even. Seriously, even AMZN is probably a better buy than YHOO at the current price. At least, AMZN has a revenue of 153 million last quarter which is 3 TIMES that of YHOO (only 50 million). AMZN at least has a very defined business model, selling books and music,..... What is YHOO ? It is definitely just a story stock. Selling ads ? Come on!