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Technology Stocks : Semi-Equips - Buy when BLOOD is running in the streets! -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: lrrp who wrote (7358)	11/25/1998 12:45:00 AM
From: Ian@SI	Read Replies (2) \| Respond to of 10921

l, first thought: these cyclicals are never priced based upon the backward looking fundamentals. rather, the stock prices tend to represent hopes, dreams and best guesses at what's likely to be happening 6-9 months out. second thought: Sentiment has changed from fear of a margin call to a fear of being left behind. Go read the AMAT, NVLS or KLAC threads. There's so much pent up demand for these stocks that I suspect they'll have a difficult time showing any downward volatility whatsoever. third thought: All the talking heads are convinced that small caps are going to outperform the large caps by a wide margin during the next 3-5 years. fourth thought: We're approaching that time of year when the January effect will give these stocks an added boost. fifth thought: Why take gains so late in the year? One then gets to pay taxes almost immediately. One could probably take even larger gains after the january effect and have an extra year before the tax payment is due. Last thought: Unless there's some new news that contradicts Mitch Tyson's view of the up cycle timing, I think the up trend in prices will continue. Personally, I have so much fear of being left behind, I'm afraid to do any tax loss selling to offset gains already realized. FWIW, Ian.