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Strategies & Market Trends : Waiting for the big Kahuna -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Death Sphincter who wrote (34390)	11/24/1998 11:32:00 PM
From: bobby beara	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 94695

Carl, goldilocks is a pete m Myth -g- The CRB bottomed in January, June 15th, and Sept 1. and after the subsequent rallies, all headed down. >If global economies are improving,< don't thin so, and it looks like AG is going to be busy doing more rate cuts. Still trying to figure out this 4/8 year cycle. The nikkei was nicked in the 86/7 cycle and went on to peak in 89 and bottomed in the 90 cycle. It is hard to believe that we could just be nicked in this cycle and we could have another 3 year ride to another top. bb

To: Death Sphincter who wrote (34390)	11/25/1998 1:56:00 AM
From: Bull RidaH	Read Replies (2) \| Respond to of 94695

Carl, Thanks for the very Deere post you sent... That was so sweet!! ;o) I think it spotlights the most crucial point of all as to what is REALLY happening on the world financial front. The article mentions that the equity markets in Asia are pumping back up, but end demand is still lifeless. The statement I'm about to make is why the Equity markets have no where to go but down very soon. INVESTING IN EQUITY MARKETS HAS CANNIBALIZED END USER DEMAND. The equity markets have nearly every citizen in nearly every developed country fixated on the dream of compounded outsized returns. Who in their right mind would be willing to miss out on that? So how do Central Banks REALLY stimulate aggregrate demand again. The past 6 months have proven that pumping more money into the economy and lowering rates will not do it. The individual must be broken from the greedy habit of saving all their money and sending it to their broker every month. That is something only a long and drawn out Bear Market in Equities is capable of doing. Of course, the Fed will be the one to make it happen, and the first seed was planted today by the honorable Ms. Rivlin. Regards, David