Silicon Investor (SI) -- The First Internet Community

STOCKTALK

We've detected that you're using an ad content blocking browser plug-in or feature. Ads provide a critical source of revenue to the continued operation of Silicon Investor. We ask that you disable ad blocking while on Silicon Investor in the best interests of our community. If you are not using an ad blocker but are still receiving this message, make sure your browser's tracking protection is set to the 'standard' level.

Strategies & Market Trends : Waiting for the big Kahuna -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Bull RidaH who wrote (34416)	11/26/1998 7:59:00 PM
From: Vitas	Respond to of 94695

David, >>> what is the typical market appreciation during the up part of the 4 year cycle?<<< Don't know. "4 year" cycle bottoms have been: '32, '38, '42, '46, '49' '53, '57, '60, '62, '66, '70, '74, '78, '82, '87, '90, '94. The general pattern would seem to be first a recovery high, then more new highs to follow, sometimes substantially so. A significant factor may be the 40 year cycle consisting of 23 years up and 17 years downward to flat. This 40 year cycle may be related to the demographics cycle. Therefore, from 1966 to 1982, we were limited to only recovery highs coming out of 4 year bottoms. Even so, substantial money was made playing those bottoms. The current 23 year up cycle is due to end around 2005, the same time demographics are due to top out in the U.S.A. This quote from the Ascani article in July may say it all in a nutshell: "This 4-year cycle is well known to many analysts, investors, and professionals, yet it still seems to be met each time with denial by the average investor." You may be right about 1192. This whole thing could abort at anytime. The point is, don't get stubborn in the face of a very strong market phenomenon (and conversely, I am not going to be stubborn very long if reality dictates). If you catch those 4 year bottoms (and avoid the bulk of the slides into them), you don't need to catch "the big one". Look how many pundits have been rolled over since the 1987 pullback. Vitas