GartnerGroup's Dataquest Says Worldwide Cable Modem Shipments to Grow 130 Percent in 1998; Dataquest Report Provides Five-Year Outlook for the Industry
December 2, 1998
SAN JOSE, Calif.--(BUSINESS WIRE) Fueled by strong demand in North America, the worldwide cable modem market is forecast to grow 130 percent in 1998, with shipments reaching 492,000 units, up from 214,000 units in 1997, according to Dataquest Inc., a unit of Gartner Group, Inc. (NYSE:IT).
The market continues to be driven by the North America region, where cable modem shipments are projected to account for 79 percent of the worldwide market in 1998.
"In the residential marketplace, the success of high-speed cable data services will depend on the penetration of PCs in households as well as the state of network operators' cable hybrid fiber coax (HFC) infrastructure and how much of it is activated for two-way communications capability," said Patti Reali, industry analyst in Dataquest's Remote LAN and Internet Access Worldwide program.
Dataquest's most recent survey indicated that PC penetration will approach 49 million households in the United States by the end of 1998, and more than 80 percent of these households will have Internet access, the overwhelming majority of which are analog dial-up connections.
"This data indicates that broadband cable ISPs and their affiliated cable network operators have a significant market opportunity to gain market share from incumbent dial-up ISPs," Ms. Reali said.
Dataquest analysts said the cable modem market will begin to see improved growth in other regions of the world. European countries are in the midst of trials and some commercial rollouts, and network operators have announced aggressive deployment plans. The Asia/Pacific and Lain America regions are forecast to see increasing demand in the stronger economies where aggressive pricing against incumbent service providers is expected to win converts.
In 2002, worldwide cable modem shipments are projected to surpass 2.4 million units, with the North America region accounting for 50 percent of the shipments.
"The market for cable modems and high-speed cable Internet access stalled slightly in mid-1998, as cable network operators waited for the finalization of the Data Over Cable Service Interface Specification (DOCSIS) standard, and the shipment of standards-based headend and cable modem gear," Ms. Reali said.
"Final certification of interoperability of vendor equipment was not expected until late December 1998, and early January 1999, and volume shipments of standard cable modems will begin shortly after that during the first quarter of 1999."
Additional information is available in the Dataquest Market Statistics report "Cable Modem Market Share and Forecast." This report covers the worldwide cable modem customer-premises equipment (CPE) market with detailed statistical information and analysis.
This report is produced by Dataquest's Remote LAN and Internet Access Worldwide program. Remote access is one of the fastest-growing and the most dynamic market within the communications industry, and this program offers in-depth and timely analysis of the issues that impact this market. More information on this program is available on Dataquest's Web site at dataquest.com.
To purchase the report or subscribe to this program, please call 800/419-DATA, or 408/468-8009. More information about Dataquest's programs, descriptions of recent research reports, and full text of press releases can be found on the Internet at dataquest.com.
GartnerGroup's Dataquest is the recognized leader in providing the high-technology and financial communities with market intelligence for the semiconductor, computer systems and peripherals, communications, document management, software, and services sectors of the global information technology industry.
As the world's leading authority on IT, GartnerGroup provides clients with a wide range of products and services in the areas of IT advisory services, measurement, research, decision support, analysis, and consulting.
Founded in 1979, with headquarters in Stamford, Conn., GartnerGroup is at the center of a global community with more than 11,000 client organizations served by analysts in 80 locations worldwide. Additional information about the company is available on the Internet at gartner.com.
CONTACT: Dataquest | Tom McCall, 408/468-8312 | tom.mccall@gartner.com
[Copyright 1998, Business Wire] |