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To: rll who wrote (82278)11/25/1998 8:46:00 AM
From: Grant  Respond to of 176387
 
(COMTEX) B: IDC: Q3 sales of PCs up 20% in Europe, Middle East and Af
B: IDC: Q3 sales of PCs up 20% in Europe, Middle East and Africa

NOV 25, 1998, M2 Communications - PC sales in the EMEA region rose 20%
year-on-year during the 3rd quarter, according to International Data
Corporation (IDC), making it the fastest-growing region in the world.
This follows strong growth also recorded in the first half of the year
- despite the sharp downturn in Russia- and a number of international
branded vendors saw sales rise considerably above the EMEA average, as
most smaller PC firms struggled to keep pace.

At 26%, growth in Western Europe was exceptionally healthy, helped by
several major vendors moving inventory into the distribution channel in
preparation for Q4 - the peak quarter for the PC market. Unusually
attractive desktop prices, coupled with a boom in Internet and Intranet
adoption rates, have helped lift the market. However, costs involved
with fixing the Year 2000 and conversion to the euro have put a drain
on budgets in smaller-sized enterprises. Overall Europe has become a
focus for large international brands, which have turned attention away
from weaker Far Eastern economies.

The Nordic region continued to be driven by sales of PCs through
'employee purchase schemes' in the third quarter. Under these schemes,
organizations are given tax breaks for buying PCs for their employees,
giving rise to orders of up to 25,000 machines. The pace of the schemes
continues to gather momentum, as unions put pressure on employers to
supply home PCs for their workers as a means of educating them, and
their children, in IT skills.

Many smaller countries in Western Europe, such as Greece and Ireland,
showed massive growth, as governments continue the trend towards
increased IT spending.

The Compaq Group continued to dominate the Western European market
with 18% of the overall market, and a growth of almost 39%. The Group
also remained outright leader in Eastern Europe, with a 6% share of the
(more fragmented) market. Nevertheless, growth was down 31.5% for the
Compaq Group, as it suffered from the political crisis in Russia - as
well as encountering distribution problems - and experiencing
difficulties with integrating Digital. Compaq also trailed
significantly behind Toshiba for notebooks. In the Middle East/Africa
region, Compaq continued to lead against IBM.

Dell recorded an impressive performance in Western Europe with by far
the strongest growth of all the top ten vendors, at almost 90%. Dell
was one of the few major vendors to record consistent, positive growth
in Eastern Europe, up almost 45% year on year - and trebling its growth
for servers. Growth for its desktops and notebooks was consistent, if
not spectacular in Eastern Europe. Dell continues to reinforce and
maintain its pressure on Compaq Group for the entire EMEA region.

IBM recovered in Western Europe during the third quarter, showing 32%
growth and regaining ground, settling into third position. However, in
Eastern Europe IBM recorded a disappointing quarter with share down
year on year.

The trend towards consolidation continued throughout all regions, as
international vendors succeeded at the expense of local firms. Eastern
Europe continued to experience considerable problems, down 24% year on
year, as the fragmentation amongst traditionally stronger local vendors
in the region continued into Q3/98. Eastern Europe also suffered from
the effects of the economic collapse in Asia. Political and economic
instability continued, as the largest market in Eastern Europe, Russia,
continued to suffer, with a tumble of 58% due predominantly to the
currency crisis, and mass unemployment. Imports were also badly
affected throughout Eastern Europe, and the consumer market has been
hit very severely. Not only has the US Dollar value of wages fallen but
also many people have lost savings in bankrupt commercial banks.

In the MEA region, year on year growth was encouraging at 28%, as
many countries emerged from a traditionally weak second quarter. There
was an increasing preference towards international brands in Q3/98, and
a shift away from local vendors, due to 'Year 2000' replacements in the
corporate market. Another reason for this consolidation appears to be
greater consumer and business buying confidence, and greater faith in
international vendors to supply effective solutions to 'Year 2000'
problems. Q3 had been a fairly active period in terms of IT investment.
Government bids and investments in medium and small-scale banks
revitalised the market. The introduction of the new tax law led the
large-scale enterprises to adopt a reserved attitude towards serious
capital investments. As a primary reaction against a tighter tax
policy, they chose to keep their liquid resources in their hands



About IDC

International Data Corporation is the information technology
industry's most comprehensive resource on worldwide IT markets, trends,
products, vendors, and geographies. IDC provides data, analysis and
advisory services to the world's leading IT suppliers as well as IS
professionals in finance, insurance, entertainment, advertising,
consumer goods and publishing. IDC's research and opinions are based on
the results of more than 300,000 end-user surveys, in-depth competitive
analysis, broad technology coverage, and strategic analysis. IDC is
committed to providing global research with local content through its
500 analysts in more than 40 countries worldwide. Additional
information on IDC can be found on its Web site at idc.com.

IDC is a division of International Data Group, the world's leading IT
media, research, and exposition company.

All product and company names may be trademarks or registered
trademarks of their respective holders.

-0-



(C)1994-98 M2 COMMUNICATIONS LTDCONTACT: Meryl Salter, European
Marketing Manager
Tel: +44 (0)181 987 7109
Fax: +44 (0)181 747 0212
e-mail: msalter@idc.com



*M2 COMMUNICATIONS DISCLAIMS ALL LIABILITY FOR
INFORMATION PROVIDED WITHIN M2 PRESSWIRE. DATA
SUPPLIED BY NAMED PARTY/PARTIES.*

*** end of story ***



To: rll who wrote (82278)11/25/1998 8:49:00 AM
From: nihil  Read Replies (2) | Respond to of 176387
 
re: diversification

I understand the theory -- it is a way of guaranteeing mediocre performance for the faint of heart. It is based on portfolio theory that assumes (but cannot prove) that return and variance must be inversely related. Look at the Dell, MSFT, and INTC 5 or 10 year charts (among others) and tell me if you believe that return and performance are inversely correlated over periods of a year or so. Eventually all, like IBM of old, must munch the bullet, (else they would absorb all available funds), but it is foolish to avoid such stocks -- with promising underlying fundamentals -- until that time occurs and it is often forewarned by a decline in revenues, margins, and profits. One or two quarters don't make a warning. None of this applies to stocks that are selling at 100 times sales.